Cuba vs Bonaire: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Home victory at 1.13

Cuba are expected to defeat Bonaire at odds of 1.13, indicating the model's strong preference for the hosts. The market has priced the hosts as favourites, with 48 bookmakers offering identical lines for the home side since the opening at 1.13 on 27 September. Bonaire's odds drifted higher before settling at 14.39, a 5.1% decline.

Cuba have gone unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 11 points from three victories and two draws. They scored 11 goals while conceding just three, including a 3:0 away win over Grenada on 25 September and a 3:0 home victory against St. Lucia in November. The Cubans have shown resilience on the road, drawing 1:1 away to the Dominican Republic and 2:2 away to Martinique before closing that sequence with back-to-back wins.

Bonaire's recent record tells a different story. They have lost four of their last five matches, managing only a single victory against Barbados 3:1 at home on 27 March. Their most recent outing ended in a 1:2 defeat to St. Kitts and Nevis on 26 September at home, followed by a 0:2 loss away to the British Virgin Islands. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 10 across those five fixtures.

No head-to-head meetings exist between these two sides, so there is no historical pattern to reference.

Bonaire's three points from five matches suggest they are struggling to find consistency at this level.

The model projects Cuba scoring 2.4 goals and Bonaire 0.8, with the most probable scoreline at 2:0 at 11% probability. A 2:1 victory for the hosts carries 10%, while a 1:1 draw sits at 9%. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 53%, and matches with three or more goals are expected in 63% of simulations.

A draw would suit Bonaire's approach of running the clock down, and that remains the primary threat to the home victory prediction.