Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira: match prediction on 1 September 2026
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pereira
Prediction for
Win: Deportivo Pasto
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
62%
1
24%
X
14%
2
Average bookmaker line (42)
1.47
1
3.87
X
6.65
2
Odds range
1.41 — 1.58
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 00:18- Депортиво Пасто — 3. place, 34 points after 19 games (10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses)
- Депортиво Перейра — 20. place, 10 points after 19 games (1 wins, 7 draws, 11 losses)
- Депортиво Пасто, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Депортиво Перейра, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Депортиво Пасто — 3, 2 draws, Депортиво Перейра — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Deportivo Pasto
DLWWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Deportivo Pereira
DLLDD
3 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 14
4Deportivo Pasto
4Draw
6Deportivo Pereira
- 21 FebDeportivo Pereira — Deportivo Pasto2:2
- 28 Oct 2025Deportivo Pasto — Deportivo Pereira4:0
- 14 May 2025Deportivo Pereira — Deportivo Pasto1:0
- 30 Jul 2024Deportivo Pasto — Deportivo Pereira2:0
- 31 Jan 2024Deportivo Pereira — Deportivo Pasto0:1
Bookmaker market
42
bookmakers counted
1.47
Average bookmaker line
1.41 — 1.58
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 00:18The model expects Pasto to score 1.6 goals to Pereira's 0.8, with a 14% probability for a 1:0 result. The conclusion holds unless Pereira's recent defensive solidity produces an upset.
Pasto have not won in five matches. They took one point from four losses and a 1:1 draw at La Equidad FC on 28 August, conceding eight goals while scoring two. The hosts lost 0:1 at home to Llaneros and 0:2 to Deportivo Cali, then lost 2:0 away at Millonarios and 2:1 at home to Rionegro Aguilas.
Pereira have found a different rhythm. Their last five matches brought one win, three draws and one loss. They held Alianza Petrolera and Fortaleza to 0:0 draws away from home, beat Jaguares 1:0 at home in the Copa Colombia, and drew 1:1 with Rionegro Aguilas away. They have conceded only two goals in that period while scoring two themselves. The form suggests a side that knows how to grind results.
The head-to-head record tells a balanced story. Eight matches have been played, with three wins for each side and two draws. The most recent meeting on 21 February 2026 ended 2:2 in Pereira. Pasto won 4:0 at home in October 2025, but Pereira claimed a 1:0 victory in May 2025.
The model's expected goals figures point toward a tight contest. The draw probability sits at 25%, both teams to score at 45%, and three or more goals at 45%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 14%, 1:1 at 12%, and 2:0 at 11%. Pasto's goal distribution shows 31% arriving after the 75th minute, while Pereira have conceded 26% in the final quarter of an hour. That timing mismatch could prove decisive.
A draw suits Pereira's approach. They have drawn three of their last five matches and are comfortable running the clock down. If they keep the score level and manage the game, the home side's frustration could lead to mistakes. Pasto's defensive record shows 28% of goals conceded between the 61st and 75th minute, a period where concentration often wavers. That is where Pereira's best chance lies.