Duhok vs Ghaz Al Shamal: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Duhok are 1.63 to beat Ghaz Al Shamal in the Iraqi League on 8 September, and that price holds because the hosts have not lost a single match this season while the visitors have dropped points in two of their last five games. The model puts a draw at 31%, but the weight of results points to a narrow home win.

Unbroken run at home

Duhok sit nine places up the table on seven points from five fixtures. They took all three points against Al Quwa Al Jawiya on 3 September, but before that came four consecutive draws. Only one of those ended with more than one goal — the 3-3 draw with Al-Talaba. They have conceded six in total, which keeps them in contention despite the lack of clean sheets.

Visitors without momentum

Ghaz Al Shamal are 13th on five points after five matches. They beat Gharraf 1-0 away, but lost to Al-jolan Sc at home and to Zakho away. Their attacking output has been thin — three goals in five games — and they have not scored in the first half of the last 15 minutes of any match.

Low-scoring expectation

The model expects Duhok to score 1.1 goals and Ghaz Al Shamal 0.9. A 1-0 result is the most likely outcome at 15%, followed by 0-0 at 14%. Both teams to score sits at 39%, which suggests a tight game but not necessarily a high one.

When the picture changes

A draw would suit the visitors if they can sit deep and absorb pressure. Duhok have conceded 27% of their goals after the 76th minute, so a late slip could turn a win into a point. If Ghaz Al Shamal score early, they would have to chase the game and open up — which is where the hosts are most dangerous.