Grenada vs Bonaire: match prediction on 6 October 2026

Grenada to win, with confidence 92%. The model expects them to score 4.5 goals while Bonaire manages just 0.4, and the probable scorelines are all clean sheets for the hosts. This conclusion stops holding if Bonaire find a way to break through, though their recent away form suggests otherwise.

Grenada have not won a single match in their last five outings, losing every game and failing to score a single goal across 18 conceded goals. They sit at zero points from five matches, a run that has left them searching for any sign of life.

Bonaire have fared only marginally better, picking up one victory from five games but losing four. Their sole win came 3:1 at home against Barbados in the CONCACAF Series, while their other results include 0:2 away to Cuba, 1:2 at home to St. Kitts and Nevis, 0:2 against the British Virgin Islands, and 0:3 to Saint Martin. They have scored four goals and conceded ten, a pattern that does not suggest sudden improvement.

The model's expectations differ from what either side has shown recently. Grenada are projected to score 4.5 goals, while Bonaire are expected to manage just 0.4. The draw probability sits at 3%, with 86% of simulations producing three or more goals. The most likely scorelines are all one-sided: 4:0 at 13%, 5:0 at 11%, and 3:0 at 11%. Both teams to score comes in at 34%, but the weight of the model's output points elsewhere.

Goal timing offers some context for how this might unfold. Bonaire have scored a third of their goals each in the opening 15 minutes, the 31-45 period, and the final 15 minutes. Grenada have conceded 36% of their goals in that closing window, which could work against them if Bonaire find any rhythm. Bonaire themselves have been most vulnerable to goals in the 31-45 and 46-60 periods, each accounting for 29% of what they have let in.

Team statistics from recent matches show Grenada averaging 105.5 attacks per game compared to Bonaire's 73, though Bonaire have managed 3 shots on target per match versus Grenada's 1.5. Possession figures put Grenada at 42% against Bonaire's 32%. Neither side has produced anything resembling consistency.

What remains is a match where the model sees Grenada as overwhelming favourites despite their recent results.

The prediction holds only if the model's expectations materialise and Bonaire fail to score. A single goal from the visitors would shift the entire landscape, and given their sporadic ability to find the net, that remains the primary risk.