Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek: match prediction on 30 September 2026

Migdal HaEmek enter the fixture as favourites, with a 68 per cent probability of victory.

The visitors have won two of the last three meetings and carry a far better recent record. They sit on 10 points from five games — three wins, one draw, one loss — while the hosts have managed just 3 points from a single victory and four defeats. The gap shows in the goals: Migdal HaEmek have netted 13 and conceded 7, Arraba 3 and 14.

The head-to-head tells the same story. In the last three encounters Migdal HaEmek have won twice and drawn once. The most recent fixture on 31 January 2025 ended 2:1 to the visitors, and before that they kept a clean sheet at home on 6 September 2024. The only exception was a 0:0 State Cup match in August 2024.

Arraba's form has been difficult. Their last four matches all ended in defeat, including heavy losses away to Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed (1:4) and at home to Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (0:4). They have scored just three goals in that span and failed to find the net in four of the five games. The only positive was a 2:1 away win against Hapoel Ironi Karmiel on 27 February.

Migdal HaEmek's attacking rhythm is clear in the goal timing data. Forty per cent of their goals come between the 61st and 75th minutes, while Arraba have scored half their goals in the 16 to 30 minute window. The visitors have also been vulnerable early — 64 per cent of their goals conceded arrive in that same 16 to 30 minute period. That suggests an open start could suit both sides, but Migdal HaEmek's strength in the second half gives them the edge.

The prediction suggests 0.9 goals for Arraba and 2.1 for Migdal HaEmek. A 22 per cent chance of a draw, 52 per cent for both teams to score, and 57 per cent for three or more goals in the match. The most likely scorelines are 0:2 at 11 per cent, 1:1 at 11 per cent, and 1:2 at 10 per cent. The odds are against the hosts.

Arraba's chances improve if they can impose their early pressure and score in the 16 to 30 minute window while keeping a clean sheet. Their defensive record is poor — 28 per cent of goals conceded come in the final 15 minutes — but if they can avoid that late collapse and exploit Migdal HaEmek's weakness in the same period, the expectation shifts. A draw would also undermine the prediction, given the 22 per cent probability and the visitors' tendency to run the clock down in tight games.

Statistical averages show Migdal HaEmek averaging 4.67 shots on target per match compared to Arraba's 1.5, and they hold 57 per cent possession on average. The hosts average 46 per cent possession and 2.4 corners. These figures align with the visitors' dominance in recent meetings and their superior goal difference.

The match kicks off at 12:30 UTC on 30 September 2026 in the Liga Alef.