Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Ironi Nesher
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Prediction for
Win: Ironi Nesher
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
27%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28- Ирони Нешер, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Цирей Умм-эль-Фахм, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Ирони Нешер — 1, 1 draws, Цирей Умм-эль-Фахм — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Ironi Nesher
DWWWD
3 wins · 2 draws
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
WLDDL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 4
1Ironi Nesher
1Draw
2Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
- 5 Dec 2025Ironi Nesher — Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm1:1
- 28 Nov 2024Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm — Ironi Nesher1:0
- 21 Mar 2024Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm — Ironi Nesher0:2
- 29 Dec 2023Ironi Nesher — Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm0:3
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28Ironi Nesher to win, 55% confidence. Ironi Nesher’s edge evaporates if Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm exploit the hosts' vulnerability in the first half, where Ironi Nesher have conceded half their goals between the 16th and 30th minutes.
Ironi Nesher arrive with momentum. Their last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one defeat, yielding 10 points and an 11:5 goal difference. They opened their recent campaign with a 2:0 victory away at Ironi Baka El Garbiya on 9 September, then followed with a 6:1 home win over Tzeirey Tamra four days later. The only blemish in that run was a 3:0 away defeat to Hapoel Migdal HaEmek in February.
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm's form is steadier but less potent. They have two wins, two draws and one defeat across five games, accumulating 8 points with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their most recent fixture ended 1:1 at home against Maccabi Neve Sha'anan on 10 September, and they also drew 0:0 away at Hapoel Bnei Musmus. Their away record in this sample shows one win and one draw.
The head-to-head record is 1W-1D-2L. In four meetings, Ironi Nesher have won once, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent encounter on 5 December 2025 ended 1:1 at home for Ironi Nesher. The visit to Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm on 21 March 2024 saw Ironi Nesher win 2:0 away.
The model projects Ironi Nesher to score 1.3 goals and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1.0. Both teams to score probability: 48%, and 3 or more goals at 43%.
Ironi Nesher's attacking pattern is heavily concentrated in the closing stages. They score 55% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, with another 27% arriving in the 31st to 45th minute window.
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have been difficult to break down. They drew their last two matches and have only conceded 4 goals in 5 outings. Their defensive solidity could frustrate Ironi Nesher, particularly if they manage to score early and exploit the hosts' vulnerability in the 16th to 30th minute period, where half their goals have been conceded.