Jadran LP vs Dubrava Zagreb: match prediction on 2 September 2026

The gap between second and fourteenth in the table tells you everything: Jadran have taken four points from two matches while Dubrava Zagreb sit on zero with two defeats. The model puts Jadran's expected goals at 4.3 against Dubrava's 0.4, and the most likely scoreline is 4:0 at 13%. This conclusion stops holding if Dubrava manage to score first and then sit deep — a 1:0 lead early on changes the entire dynamic of the match.

Jadran's recent run reads like a promotion charge. Five wins from five matches, 16 goals scored and only 4 conceded, including a 4:1 away victory over Hrvace on 29 August. They are already second in the First NL with four points, having won once and drawn once in their league campaign. The attacking output has been relentless — six goals against Dakovo-Croatia, three against Lucko, two against Varteks Varaždin. Their top scorer N. Maritz has seven goals in the last six months, and I. Milicevic added one in the most recent league fixture.

Dubrava Zagreb are struggling to find any rhythm. Two defeats so far in the First NL, both 1:2 losses — at home to Croatia Zmijavci and away to HNK Cibalia. Their last five matches across all competitions show zero wins, one draw and four defeats. They have scored just three goals and conceded eight, with a 0:2 friendly loss to Segesta Sisak and a 0:1 defeat at home to Kustosija among their recent results. A. Matić and L. Zohora are their leading scorers with two goals each, but neither has scored since April or May respectively.

The model's expectations are stark. Jadran are projected to score 4.3 goals while Dubrava manage just 0.4. The probability of a draw sits at 3%, and 84% of simulations end with three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines are 4:0 (13%), 3:0 (12%) and 5:0 (11%). Both teams to score comes in at 32%, suggesting Dubrava might find the net but Jadran will almost certainly score multiple times. Jadran's goal distribution shows they are dangerous in the opening 30 minutes, with 53% of their 21 goals coming in that period.

A draw suits Dubrava's approach if they can absorb pressure and hit on the counter, but their defensive record offers little comfort. They have conceded 30 goals across their sample, with 20% coming in the final 15 minutes and another 20% in the 76-90 minute window. Jadran concede most of their goals after the break — 30% in the 31-45 minute period and 30% in 46-60 — but Dubrava's attacking threat has been minimal. The visitors score 38% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute, but with only 16 goals in total and Dubrava's recent form, that window rarely opens. Jadran's defensive solidity in the opening half, where they have conceded zero goals, should see them through untroubled.