Japan Women vs South Korea Women: match prediction on 29 September 2026

Japan win at 1.23

Japan are the clear side here. The model expects 3.1 goals for them against 0.7 for South Korea, and the market has priced that gap firmly — 1.23 for the hosts, 9.41 for the visitors, with 39 bookmakers tracking the line. Japan have not lost in this tournament, scoring 24 goals in three matches while conceding none. South Korea have drawn two of their last five, including a 1:1 with North Korea, and their defensive record shows they can be vulnerable — they conceded 3 goals in their last match against Uzbekistan.

The hosts' dominance

Japan's run in this competition has been uninterrupted. They beat Philippines 4:0, Chinese Taipei 4:0, and Vietnam 8:0, with only a 0:1 friendly loss to South Africa in June breaking their streak. Their goals come across all periods, with 20% in the final 15 minutes and 20% between the 61st and 75th minute. They have scored in every segment of play, and their 62% possession average shows they control matches. South Korea's 19 goals in five matches but include a 6:3 win over Uzbekistan where they conceded three — a pattern that does not suit a match against Japan's attack.

South Korea's draw habit

South Korea sit second with 7 points from three matches, one behind Japan. Their record of 2 wins and 1 draw shows they are difficult to beat but also struggle to close out games. They drew 1:1 with North Korea at home and 1:1 with Zambia in a friendly. In the last five matches they have 2 draws and 0 losses — a pattern that suggests they will not collapse but also may not find a winning edge. Their defensive vulnerabilities appear in the first half, where 21% of goals conceded come between the 31st and 45th minute, and in the second half between 61st and 75th, where another 21% of goals fall.

History favours Japan

In four meetings since 2022, Japan won twice and drew twice. The most recent was a 4:1 victory in the Asian Cup in March 2026, and before that a 4:0 friendly win in October 2024. The two draws came in tournaments — a 1:1 in the EAFF E-1 Championship in July 2025 and a 1:1 in the Asian Cup in January 2022. Japan have not lost to South Korea in this period, and their attacking output has been consistently higher. South Korea's 54% possession average and 6.67 shots on target per match show they can compete but rarely dominate.

The model's likely scores all point to Japan without a response — 3:0 at 11%, 2:0 at 11%, and 4:0 at 9%. The draw probability sits at 11%, and both teams to score is 47%. A draw suits South Korea's tendency to run the clock down and protect a point, but their defensive record in the last quarter of an hour — 16% of goals conceded — makes them vulnerable to late pressure. Japan score 20% of their goals in that period, and if they find a breakthrough early, the visitors may open up and expose themselves further.

A draw would be the main threat to this prediction. Their two draws in five matches show they can control the tempo and keep the match at zero or one goal, and if they limit Japan's possession below 60% while staying compact, the model's 3.1 expected goals for Japan becomes harder to reach.