JK Tabasalu vs Legion: match prediction on 14 September 2026

JK Tabasalu to win. and have found their rhythm at home, while the visitors sit in the relegation zone with one defeat in every other game. The model places JK Tabasalu's expected goals at 2.8 against Legion's 1.2, and the most likely scoreline is 2:1. This conclusion stops holding if the match ends in a draw — Legion's desperation to climb out of 10th place gives them a reason to sit deep and grind out a point rather than chase a result.

Form on the road

JK Tabasalu's last five matches read 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, yielding 7 points and a goal difference of 12:12. They beat Luunja 3:2 at home and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 6:0 at home, while falling to Tallinna Kalev II 1:4 away and Narva U21 0:4 away. Their last five produced 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses — 1 point from 15 available. They lost 1:2 at home to Tartu Kalev, 0:3 away to Tulevik, 1:5 at home to Parnu JK Vaprus U21, and 0:1 away to Levadia U19. The only bright spot was a 3:3 draw away at Tallinna Kalev II.

The history between them

Twelve meetings have been played over recent years. JK Tabasalu have 5 wins, Legion 6, with 1 draw. In the last six encounters Legion have taken the upper hand, winning 4 of them. Legion beat JK Tabasalu 2:0 at home on 18 July 2026, and 3:2 on 24 April 2026. JK Tabasalu responded with a 3:0 win at Legion on 18 October 2025. and drew 2:2 at home on 1 June 2025. The pattern suggests Legion have been the more dangerous side in recent years, but this fixture will be played at JK Tabasalu's ground.

Where the sides stand

JK Tabasalu sit 8th in Esiliiga B with 32 points from 28 matches — 10 wins, 2 draws, 16 losses. Legion occupy 10th place, the relegation zone, with 12 points from 27 matches — 3 wins, 3 draws, 21 losses. Legion have played one fewer game than their opponents

What the model says

The model expects JK Tabasalu to score 2.8 goals and Legion 1.2. The draw probability sits at 16 per cent, while both teams to score is priced at 67 per cent. Three or more goals in the match carry a 77 per cent probability. The three most likely scorelines are 2:1 at 9 per cent, 3:1 at 8 per cent, and 2:0 at 7 per cent. JK Tabasalu score 27 per cent of their goals in the final 15 minutes and 23 per cent between 46 and 60 minutes. Legion concede 22 per cent of their goals between 61 and 75 minutes and 20 per cent in the closing quarter.

When the prediction fails

A draw suits Legion's approach — they will look to close the game down, waste time, and protect what little they have. If the visitors sit deep and manage to hold JK Tabasalu to a point, the home side's superiority in expected goals becomes irrelevant. The model does not account for tactical discipline or a goalkeeper producing above his average, and either of those could shift the balance. Legion have drawn 3 of 27 matches this season — a low percentage, but not zero.