Champions League
Kolstad
HC Kriens-Luzern
Prediction for Kolstad — HC Kriens-Luzern
57%
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Kalju Nõmme vs FC Levadia: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Kalju Nõmme
FC Levadia
Prediction for
Win: Kalju Nõmme
42%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
42%
1
25%
X
32%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:33- Калю — 2. place, 44 points after 24 games (13 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses)
- Левадия — 1. place, 56 points after 23 games (17 wins, 5 draws, 1 losses)
- Калю, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Левадия, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 17 games, Калю — 3, 5 draws, Левадия — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Kalju Nõmme
LLLWW
2 wins · 3 losses
FC Levadia
WWWWD
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 26
4Kalju Nõmme
6Draw
16FC Levadia
- 20 JunFC Levadia — Kalju Nõmme1:1
- 12 AprKalju Nõmme — FC Levadia1:1
- 21 Sep 2025Kalju Nõmme — FC Levadia2:1
- 21 Jun 2025FC Levadia — Kalju Nõmme3:1
- 24 May 2025Kalju Nõmme — FC Levadia3:3
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:33A draw or narrow Levadia win
I see a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, with Levadia able to edge it if they exploit Kalju's vulnerability in the opening 15 minutes. The model expects Kalju to score 1.5 goals and Levadia 1.3, and the two most recent meetings ended 1-1 in both directions. That pattern, combined with Levadia's unbeaten run of four wins and one draw, points to a tight contest where either side could take the points.
But they have a game in hand, and their only defeat came in April. Their last five matches produced 16 goals for and just 3 against — a defensive solidity that Kalju have struggled to match. Kalju lost two consecutive away fixtures before this fixture, including a 0-2 cup defeat to Trans Narva on 26 August, though they did score 17 goals in those five games.
The head-to-head record shows Levadia dominance with 9 wins in 17 meetings, but the last six encounters tell a different story. Two 1-1 draws in 2026, a 2-1 Kalju win in September 2025, and a 3-1 Levadia victory in June 2025. The cup match ended 3-3 in May 2025. Recent meetings have been far closer than the overall record suggests, and neither side has managed to break the other convincingly.
Levadia's timing tells a story. They concede 31% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Kalju are vulnerable in the 46-60 minute window with 35% of their goals against coming in that period. Levadia score 22% of their goals between 16 and 30 minutes, which could be decisive if they press early. Kalju's attack is spread more evenly, with 19% of their goals coming in both the opening 15 minutes and the 61-75 minute block.
This conclusion stops holding if Levadia open up too early and leave space behind. A draw suits the visitors given how they tend to run the clock down, and Kalju's vulnerability in the first 15 minutes — where they concede 24% of their goals — could prove costly if Levadia find an early breakthrough. The model's 25% draw probability is not high, but the 12% chance of 1-1 being the exact scoreline, combined with recent history, makes it the most likely single outcome.