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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Karvan vs Zaqatala: match prediction on 16 September 2026
Karvan
Zaqatala
Prediction for
Win: Karvan
91%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
91%
1
7%
X
2%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 13:33- Карван — 5. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- Загаталя — 3. place, 4 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Карван, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Загаталя, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Карван — 1, 3 draws, Загаталя — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Karvan
LDWLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Zaqatala
LWDWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 6
1Karvan
3Draw
2Zaqatala
- 9 May 2025Zaqatala — Karvan3:0
- 7 Mar 2025Karvan — Zaqatala3:2
- 13 Dec 2024Zaqatala — Karvan2:2
- 5 Apr 2024Zaqatala — Karvan1:1
- 25 Dec 2023Karvan — Zaqatala0:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 13:33The model projects 3.5 goals for the hosts against just 0.5 for the visitors, and the recent head-to-head at Karvan's ground — a 3:2 win in March 2025 — backs that up.
Karvan have split their two opening matches, picking up 3 points from a win and a loss. They beat Şahdağ 3:0 away on 3 September but then lost 0:2 on the road to Şahdağ again just six days later. The form across five games shows 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. They tend to fire late — 27% of their goals come in the final 15 minutes and another 27% between 31 and 45 minutes — but they also leak heavily in that same 31-45 window, where 36% of goals against them fall.
Zaqatala sit third with 4 points from two games, one victory and one draw. Their last five outings bring 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 7 goals for and 9 against. They opened the season with a 3:0 home victory over Baku Sportinq before drawing 2:2 away at Energetik. Their goal distribution is steadier across the match, with 29% coming between 46 and 60 minutes and 21% each in the 61-75 and 76-90 periods. They concede most often in the opening 15 minutes (27%) and again after the hour mark (27%).
The most recent encounter saw Zaqatala win 3:0 at home in May 2025, but before that Karvan secured a 3:2 victory at their own ground in March. Three of the six meetings ended level, including two 2:2 draws and one 1:1. This is not a fixture that produces one-sided results with any consistency, though the model's expectations lean heavily one way.
The statistical model gives Karvan a 3.5 expected goals figure and Zaqatala 0.5, with a 7% probability of a draw and 75% chance of 3 or more goals in the match. The three most likely scorelines are 3:0 at 14%, 4:0 at 12% and 2:0 at 12%. Both teams to score sits at 36%.
There are disciplinary concerns for Karvan that could alter the dynamic. J. Thompson carries 1 red card and 2 yellow cards in the last 6 months, sitting one booking away from a suspension. E. Turabov has 2 yellow cards and is equally close to a ban.