Kerry FC vs Treaty United: match prediction on 28 August 2026

Home win for Kerry FC at 1.94 is the most logical outcome. The model expects 1.5 goals for Kerry against 0.9 for Treaty, and the most probable scoreline is 1:0 at 14% probability.

Both teams arrive with identical recent form — two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches, earning seven points each. Kerry's results have been more varied, including a 4:0 victory away at Bray Wanderers and a heavy 0:4 FAI Cup defeat at Sligo Rovers. Treaty's recent form includes a 2:2 draw at home against Cork City and a 2:1 win away at UCD.

The head-to-head record shows a balanced contest. In 16 meetings over recent years, Kerry have won just twice while Treaty have claimed seven victories with seven draws. The most recent First Division encounter on 3 July ended 2:1 to Treaty at their ground. However, Kerry have been competitive at home — the 1:1 draw on 17 April at their stadium was a tight affair, and the 1:1 result on 26 September 2025 suggests home games between these sides tend to be close.

Kerry concede heavily late — 44% of goals against them come after the 75th minute. Treaty are dangerous early, with 29% of their goals in the first 15 minutes. Vincent Russell Borden is one booking away from suspension and has already received a red card on 31 July.

The market has not moved. Odds for Kerry at 1.94, draw at 3.30 and Treaty at 3.48 have remained static since opening on 28 August, with only two snapshots recorded. The market assigns 47% probability to a home win, 27% to a draw and 26% to a visitor victory. This is consistent with the model's expectations and Kerry's position in the table. A home win remains the baseline prediction, but it stops working if Kerry lose concentration in the final 15 minutes — they have conceded 44% of their goals in that period, and Treaty score 21% of their goals after the 75th minute.