Maccabi Kiryat Malachi vs Hapoel Herzliya: match prediction on 30 September 2026

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win at home against Hapoel Herzliya. The hosts carry an unbeaten run of five matches — three victories and two draws — while their recent defensive record speaks for itself: only three goals conceded across those fixtures. Momentum carries into Wednesday's fixture. The model gives this outcome a 46% probability.

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have collected 11 points from their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three. The 5-1 victory away at Dimona on 23 September and the 3-0 home win over Hapoel Azor on 18 September show they can dominate when they get going. Hapoel Herzliya sit close behind with 10 points from five games, but their goal difference tells a different story — six scored against three conceded. The visitors won 3-1 at home against Nordia Jerusalem on 9 September and picked up a 2-1 away victory at Maccabi Ashdod on 3 September, yet the 0-1 defeat to Beitar Yavne on 27 February remains a blemish.

The head-to-head record does not favour the hosts. Over five meetings, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have won zero times, drawn three, and lost twice. The two most recent encounters ended 1-1 apiece — first at Hapoel's ground on 28 February 2025, then at Maccabi's on 7 November 2025. Before that, Hapoel took both league victories on the road, including a 4-0 thrashing on 15 March 2024. Three of five meetings finished level, and the model puts the probability of another stalemate at 29%.

The model expects Maccabi Kiryat Malachi to score 1.5 goals and Hapoel Herzliya to find the net once. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, followed by 1-0 and 0-0 both at 10%. Both teams to score is 51%, while 3 or more goals in the match is expected 46% of the time. Maccabi's scoring pattern reinforces the late-game threat — 46% of their goals come in the final 15 minutes, and they have conceded 50% of their goals in that same window. Hapoel are more spread out, with 29% of their goals arriving in the 16-30 minute period and another 29% after 76 minutes.

This prediction changes if Hapoel Herzliya take an early lead and manage to close the game out. The visitors have shown they can score in the opening third — 29% of their goals arrive between 16 and 30 minutes — and they have conceded 50% of their goals in the 61-75 minute period. Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have won three of their last five without a defeat, but the head-to-head record and the 29% draw probability mean the hosts must be patient. If Hapoel sit deep and absorb pressure, the 1-1 outcome becomes the most probable scenario.