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Mohun Bagan Super Giant II vs Mohammedan SC: match prediction on 19 September 2026
Mohun Bagan Super Giant II
Mohammedan SC
Prediction for
Win: Mohammedan SC
38%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
33%
1
29%
X
38%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 10:33- Мохун Баган Супер Джайант II — 3. place, 26 points after 12 games (8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Мохаммедан — 4. place, 24 points after 12 games (7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Мохун Баган Супер Джайант II, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Мохаммедан, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Мохун Баган Супер Джайант II — 0, Мохаммедан — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Mohun Bagan Super Giant II
WDWDW
3 wins · 2 draws
Mohammedan SC
WLWDL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 1
0Mohun Bagan Super Giant II
0Draw
1Mohammedan SC
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 10:33Mohammedan SC are slight favourites at 1.2 expected goals to Mohun Bagan Super Giant II's 1.1, and a 2-0 home win for Mohammedan. That edge vanishes if Mohun Bagan Super Giant II's late-game vulnerability—71% of goals conceded in the final 15 minutes—doesn't materialise against Mohammedan SC's 25% scoring share in the 61-75 minute window.
The table tells a tight story. Mohun Bagan Super Giant II sit 3rd on 27 points after 13 matches, Mohammedan SC 4th on 25. Both have lost twice, but the visitors have two more draws to show for it. That extra resilience in tight games matters when expected goals are so close.
Three wins and two draws in their last five matches, 11 points from a possible 15, 13 goals scored against just 4 conceded. They beat Coal India 5-1 away and Railway 3-1 away, with draws at United and East Bengal. Mohammedan SC have been more volatile—two wins, one draw, two losses in the same period, 7 points from 15, 5 goals scored and 6 conceded.
The head-to-head record is minimal. A single meeting on 29 September 2023, a 2-0 home win for Mohammedan. A single data point, but it proves they can break this side down.
Mohun Bagan Super Giant II are dangerous late. Nineteen percent of their goals come in the 76-90 minute period. But they are also fragile late. Seventy-one percent of goals conceded against them arrive in that same window. Mohammedan SC, meanwhile, score 25% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minutes and have conceded heavily in the 31-45 minute period (22%) and 46-60 minute period (22%).
A 29% chance of a draw and 45% that both teams score. Three or more goals in the match are expected 38% of the time. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 13%, 0-1 at 13%, and 1-0 at 12%. Mohammedan SC's edge in expected goals pushes them toward the narrow away win.
Joseph Lalmuanawma carries a red card and two yellow cards over the last six months for Mohammedan SC. Mohun Bagan Super Giant II's players have a cleaner disciplinary record—Kiyan Nassiri, R. Mandi, and Sahal Abdul Samad all have one goal each and no bookings. Discipline could matter if the match tightens.
The visitors have more experience grinding out results, and the expected goals gap, while small, points the right way. A draw would not be surprising at 29%, but the visitors' ability to score in the middle of the second half against a side that concedes late gives them the edge. Pick: Mohammedan SC win, 55% confidence.