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Nordia Jerusalem vs FC Jerusalem: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Nordia Jerusalem
FC Jerusalem
Prediction for
Win: FC Jerusalem
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
31%
1
22%
X
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28- Нордия Иерусалим, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Иерусалим, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Нордия Иерусалим — 2, Иерусалим — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Nordia Jerusalem
LLLLL
5 losses
FC Jerusalem
WWWDW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 4
2Nordia Jerusalem
0Draw
2FC Jerusalem
- 20 FebNordia Jerusalem — FC Jerusalem1:2
- 17 Oct 2025FC Jerusalem — Nordia Jerusalem4:2
- 10 Jan 2025Nordia Jerusalem — FC Jerusalem3:1
- 13 Sep 2024FC Jerusalem — Nordia Jerusalem0:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28Outcome: FC Jerusalem to win Confidence: 46%
FC FC Jerusalem are set to visit Nordia Jerusalem in the Liga Alef on 18 September 2026, with the visitors carrying a significant momentum advantage into the fixture. Nordia Jerusalem have lost five straight, conceding 14 and scoring five. In contrast, FC Jerusalem remain unbeaten in their last five outings, securing three victories and two draws to gather 11 points. This disparity in current performance suggests the visitors are the stronger side on paper, even if the historical record between the two is more balanced.
Four meetings, two wins each. FC Jerusalem took the last two. However, the most recent encounters have swung in FC Jerusalem's favour. That run of two consecutive wins indicates a psychological edge, particularly given that Nordia Jerusalem have failed to secure a result against these opponents in their last two attempts.
The model projects 1.9 xG for FC Jerusalem, 1.5 for the hosts. 67% chance both score, 66% for three-plus goals. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 and 1:2, each at 9%, with 2:1 following at 7%. These figures point towards an open game where FC Jerusalem's attacking output is likely to outweigh the hosts' struggles.
Nordia FC Jerusalem concede 42% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of play, a vulnerability that coincides with FC Jerusalem scoring 25% of their own goals in that same window. Additionally, the visitors have found the net 33% of the time between the 61st and 75th minutes, while the hosts have not conceded a single goal during that specific period. This mismatch in timing could allow FC Jerusalem to impose themselves in the middle third before testing the hosts' late-game resilience.
FC Jerusalem win if they press. A 22% draw chance kills the edge if it goes tight. Nordia Jerusalem score 40% of their goals in the final 15 minutes as well, meaning they possess the capacity to disrupt the visitors' plans if the game remains level deep into stoppage time. A stalemate would nullify the advantage FC Jerusalem have built through recent form.