Norway vs Denmark: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Home win at 1.55 — the market has not priced in Denmark's defensive absence

I see Norway to win at 1.55. The market sits at 53% for the home side, our estimate at 82%. That 29-point gap tells us the bookmakers have not accounted for one thing: Christensen is out for the season with a thigh muscle tear, and Denmark have no ready replacement of his calibre in central defence.

Norway's last five matches read like a rollercoaster — three wins, two losses, 9 goals for, 10 against. They lost 1:2 at home to England and 1:4 at home to France, but they also beat Brazil 2:1 away and Ivory Coast 2:1 away. The pattern is clear: they can lose badly at home and win abroad. Denmark's five have been steadier — two wins, two draws, one loss, 9 goals for, 6 against. They ground out a 0:0 against DR Congo and drew 1:1 away to Czech Republic. There is a difference between grinding results and being able to win them when it matters.

The only recent meeting between these sides was a friendly on 8 June 2024, when Denmark won 3:1 at home. That result sits in the past, but it matters for context — Denmark know how to handle Norway in their own setup. Now the fixture is reversed, and Denmark are missing their most experienced central defender. Christensen's absence is not a marginal concern; it is a structural one. Denmark have not shown they can replace him without a drop in defensive solidity.

The model expects Norway to score 4.5 goals and Denmark 0.3. The draw probability sits at 3%, both teams to score at 28%, and three or more goals at 85%. The most likely scorelines are 4:0 at 14%, 5:0 at 12%, and 3:0 at 12%. Norway score heavily in the 31-45 minute block (29%) and again in the 76-90 minute block (29%). Denmark concede 67% of their goals after the 75th minute. That is not a coincidence — it is a vulnerability that Norway's late pressure can exploit.

My conclusion stops holding if Denmark manage to keep the game tight and avoid the second half. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Norway fail to break through in the first 60 minutes, Denmark's experience in seeing out games could be enough to secure a point. But at the current odds, with Christensen unavailable, the home side have too much for them.