Portland Hearts of Pine vs Alta: match prediction on 13 September 2026

Portland Hearts of Pine to win, 62% confidence.

Portland have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches, including a 2:1 victory at home against Westchester SC on 06.09.2026. Alta, sitting just one place above them, have managed only 3 points from their last 5 outings and lost four of those five games. The visitors have lost four of their last five games, scoring five goals and conceding ten in that span.

The most recent encounter on 22.03.2026 ended 0:0. In four meetings over the past two years, Portland have won none, drawn three, and lost one. Before that, Portland held on for a 2:2 draw on 25.10.2025, then lost 0:2 away on 02.07.2025, and drew 1:1 at home on 22.06.2025.

Portland's attacking profile suggests they will find the net. The data expects them to score 1.8 goals, Alta 1.2. Portland have scored 47% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, while Alta have conceded 31% of their goals in that same period. The visitors' attacking output is more evenly spread, with 30% of their goals coming late, but they have struggled to convert chances recently. Alta's last victory came on 09.08.2026, a 3:0 win at home against Fort Wayne. Since then, they have lost four consecutive games, including a 0:5 thrashing away at Charlotte Independence.

The table shows a narrow gap between the sides. Alta sit 10th with 29 points from 25 matches, Portland 11th with 26 points. Both teams have played the same number of games. Portland's record reads 6 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses; Alta's is 7 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses. The difference is marginal, but Portland's home advantage and Alta's poor away form tilt the balance. Portland have taken points from two draws and a win in their last five, while Alta have dropped points in four of their last five matches.

A draw suits the visitors and would undermine this conclusion. Given how they have been running games down in recent defeats, a stalemate is the main threat. The data puts the draw probability at 23%, but Alta's tendency to defend deep when under pressure could push that higher. Portland's expected goals of 1.8 suggest they should score one or two, but if Alta hold firm, the 1:1 scoreline at 11% becomes the most likely outcome.

Portland's late-game dominance in scoring and Alta's late-game vulnerability in conceding point toward a home side that finds a winner in the closing stages.