Solin vs Uljanik: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Solin are to beat Uljanik at home on 30 August. The model puts their chance at 48% and the reasoning is straightforward: Solin have won both of their last two home meetings with Uljanik, scoring 4 goals while conceding none, and the expected-goals projection (1.9 to 1.4) favours the hosts by a similar margin.

Table position and recent form

Uljanik sit 1st with 3 points from one match; Solin are 9th with 1 point. The gap looks wider than the underlying form suggests. Uljanik's away record over the last five games is 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses — they have scored 6 and conceded 12. Solin at home in the same period are 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, with 7 goals for and 5 against. The defensive numbers alone tilt the balance.

Head-to-head

The four meetings since October 2024 are split 2 wins each way with one draw. At Solin's ground Uljanik have never won: 2:2 in September 2025 and 2:0 to Solin in October 2024. The 1:0 away victory in March 2026 was their only success at this fixture, and it came on the road. Home advantage is the pattern here.

When goals come

Solin score most heavily between the 16th and 30th minute (25%) and again from 61st to 75th (25%). They concede a third of their goals after the break, with 29% falling in the final 15 minutes. Uljanik are more volatile: 29% of their goals arrive in the opening 15 minutes and another 29% between 31st and 45th, but they also leak 33% in the closing quarter of an hour. The overlap in the final period — where both sides are weakest — could decide the game.

What the model says

Expected goals are 1.9 for Solin and 1.4 for Uljanik. The draw probability sits at 22%, both teams to score at 65%, and three or more goals at 65%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 (10%), 2:1 (9%), and 1:2 (7%). The model favours a narrow home win.

When the prediction fails

A draw suits Uljanik's approach — if they sit deep and run the clock down, the 22% draw probability becomes the real outcome. The prediction also breaks if Solin fail to score in the 16-30 minute window where they have been most dangerous, or if they concede early and are forced to chase the game against a side that scores 29% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes.