Suriname vs Martinique: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Suriname to win at 1.57. The line sits at 59% with the margin stripped, my estimate comes in at 73% — a fourteen-point gap that tells me the market has not priced in what the recent results show. Martinique have not won a match in five; Suriname have taken seven points from their last five, including a 3:2 victory over Honduras two days ago in the same competition.

Suriname's last five ended with two wins, one draw, and two losses. They scored ten goals and conceded eight across those matches. The 3:2 win away to Honduras on 26 September was their most recent — they were behind, they found a way back into it, and they held on. The 4:0 victory at home against El Salvador in November showed they can punish weaker sides. Their losses came against Bolivia and Guatemala, both away, both in qualification matches where the stakes were different.

Martinique's record is worse. Zero wins in five matches, two draws, three losses. They scored three goals and conceded eight. Their last outing was a 1:3 defeat away to El Salvador — the same opponent they beat at home earlier this year. They drew 2:2 with Cuba at home in March and went goalless against the Dominican Republic away in November.

The head-to-head tells the same story. Three meetings in the last two years. Suriname won both Gold Cup qualification matches — 1:0 at home, 1:0 away. The only draw came in a friendly in March 2024, 1:1. Martinique have not beaten them since 2024. The model expects Suriname to score 2.7 goals and Martinique 0.8. The most likely scoreline is 2:0 at 12%, followed by 3:0 at 10%. A 2:1 comes in at 9%. The draw probability sits at 16%, both-teams-to-score at 50%, and three or more goals at 66%.

Martinique's goal distribution is uneven. They score evenly across the first 60 minutes — 33% in each 15-minute block from 16 to 60 — but have not scored in the last 30 minutes of any match in this sample. They concede heavily in the 16-30 minute window at 50%.

The line moved slightly overnight. Suriname's price opened at 1.55 and drifted to 1.57, a 1.4% increase. Martinique's price fell from 5.53 to 5.31, a 4% drop. The gap between our estimate and the line remains at fourteen points.