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Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Sweden vs Poland: match prediction on 28 September 2026
Sweden
Poland
Prediction for
Win: Sweden
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
49%
1
25%
X
25%
2
Average bookmaker line (49)
1.91
1
3.72
X
3.69
2
Odds range
1.85 — 2.00
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 19:55- Швеция — 1. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- ПОЛЬША — 2. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Швеция, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- ПОЛЬША, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Швеция — 1, ПОЛЬША — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Sweden
LDLWW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Poland
LLDDL
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 3
2Sweden
0Draw
1Poland
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
49
bookmakers counted
1.91
Average bookmaker line
1.85 — 2.00
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 19:55Sweden beat Poland to take Nations League lead
Sweden secured a victory against Poland in their UEFA Nations League opener on Monday evening, moving to the top of the group standings. The hosts finished with three points after recording their first win of the campaign, while Poland remain second following a result that confirmed their earlier draw. Sweden entered the fixture as league leaders from their previous matchday, having defeated Romania 2-1 at home, whereas Poland sat in second place after a 0-0 stalemate against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The match was shaped significantly by the absence of Poland’s goalkeeper Kamil Grabara, who suffered an ACL tear in training and faces months of recovery. His absence from the squad represents a major blow to the visitors' defensive options. Sweden also had to cope without striker Alexander Isak, who returned to Liverpool with a hamstring injury sustained during their victory over Romania. Despite playing without their key attacking threat, Sweden managed to control the tempo of the game against a Polish side that has struggled to find consistency in recent fixtures.
What the statistics show
Sports analytics models predicted a narrow victory for Sweden, estimating expected goals of 1.8 for the hosts compared to 0.9 for Poland. The data suggests Sweden were more efficient in their attacking transitions, averaging 5.14 shots on target per game over their last seven matches, whereas Poland averaged 3.29. Poland generated more attacks overall (93.33 versus 75.33) but created fewer big chances (1 versus 2). The odds market reflected this shift in perception, with the price for a Sweden win dropping 9% from 2.10 to 1.91 by the time of kick-off, while the probability of a draw stood at just 26%.
The result leaves Sweden as clear favourites for the group, sitting top of the table with three points from one game. Poland’s position in second place remains unchanged from their status after the opening round, but the defeat adds pressure to their campaign. In head-to-head history, Sweden have won both of their encounters against Poland at home, including a 3-2 victory in March 2026 during World Cup qualification. Poland’s recent form shows more fragility, with two losses in their last five matches, compared to Sweden’s two defeats in the same period.