Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Arsenal Tula face Tekstilshchik in a fixture where the visitors carry more points from their last five matches. The model gives them 1.2 expected goals against Tekstilshchik's 1.0, but the forecast breaks if the home side capitalises on Arsenal's vulnerability in the opening 30 minutes.

Tekstilshchik's recent run has been difficult. They have won only once in their last five matches, picking up three points from a 1:0 victory away at KAMAZ on 19 August. The other four fixtures ended in defeat, including a 1:4 home loss to Torpedo Moscow on 4 September and a 0:1 defeat at home to Veles on 29 August. They have scored just three goals while conceding ten.

Arsenal Tula have been slightly more resilient. Their record of one win, two draws and two losses yields five points from the same five-match span. They drew 2:2 at home against Ural on 29 August and held Leningradets to a 0:0 away on 15 August. The attack is more distributed, with Igor Gorbunov and Ilya Azyavin each finding the net three times, while Rashid Magomedov, Daniil Penchikov and Edarlyn Reyes Ureña have contributed two goals apiece.

The two sides met once in the First League on 13 July 2026, when Arsenal Tula won 2:1 at home. Their previous encounter was a 0:0 Cup tie at Tekstilshchik on 21 October 2020.

The data puts Tekstilshchik on 1.0 and Arsenal Tula on 1.2, with a 29% probability of a draw and 43% chance both teams score. The three most likely scorelines are 0:1 at 14%, 1:1 at 13% and 0:0 at 12%. Tekstilshchik's goal timing shows a weakness in the 61-75 minute period, where they have conceded 43% of their goals, while Arsenal Tula have scored 28% of theirs in that same window.

An away win would require Tekstilshchik to exploit Arsenal's early defensive lapses, where 36% of their goals have been conceded across the first 30 minutes. Arsenal's ability to control possession at 51% compared to Tekstilshchik's 46% gives them an advantage in dictating tempo, but a red card for Daniil Plotnikov or Yaroslav Krashevsky could alter the balance.