Cup
Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
96%
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Prediction for
Win: Tomislav
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 7
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Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:03Travnik are favourites here, and the table says it plainly. Zero points after two matches, bottom of the table, and two consecutive 3-0 defeats. The gap between them is not theoretical; it is on the board. I back Travnik to take all three points at 65% confidence.
Tomislav lost 0-3 away to Sloboda Tuzla and 0-3 at home to GOŠK Gabela, both in the league. They have failed to score in both competitive outings. Travnik, by contrast, kept clean sheets in their two league victories — a 2-0 win over Vitez at home and a 1-0 away at Rudar Kakanj. Their defensive record in the league is tighter, and their attacking output has been steady rather than explosive.
In five meetings since 2022, Tomislav have won twice, drawn twice, and lost once. The most recent league encounter was a 2-1 win for Tomislav in April 2026, but before that Travnik thrashed them 5-1 in September 2025. The pattern is not one-sided, but the current form suggests a stark contrast in momentum. Tomislav's league campaign has been a disaster so far; Travnik's has been flawless.
1.4 goals are projected for Tomislav and 1.1 for Travnik, with a 27% chance of a draw and 51% that both sides find the net. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), and 0-1 (9%). The numbers lean toward a narrow Travnik victory or a low-scoring draw, but the weight of evidence — form and table position — points to the visitors.
A 1-1 result would suit the visitors' tendency to grind out results, and if the match goes that way, the underdog gets a lifeline. Red card, early injury, or a complete defensive collapse would also change the picture, but those are generic risks. The real vulnerability for Travnik is overconfidence after two comfortable wins; the real vulnerability for Tomislav is the fact they have not scored in 180 minutes of league football.