Turkey vs Italy: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Turkey scored the decisive goal in the second half. According to the statistical breakdown for this fixture, the home side had netted 43 per cent of their season total in the 46-60 minute window prior to this match. That pattern continued, with Turkey finding the net between the hour mark and the start of the final third while Italy, who have conceded 71 per cent of their goals in the closing 15 minutes this season, failed to equalise.

Turkey, averaging 4.57 shots on target per match over their last seven, were more clinical.

The defensive structure held up well for Turkey, limiting Italy's attacks. Turkey's own defensive output saw them concede only the single goal that would have come from Italy's sporadic efforts in the final twenty minutes.

Before the final whistle, both nations sat in the Nations League table without a single point, having each lost their opening matches. The victory ended a run of four defeats in five games for Turkey, a run of four defeats in five games in which they scored four and conceded eight.

For Italy, the loss compounded their difficulties. They had lost their opening Nations League fixture 0-2 at home to Belgium on 25 September.

The market had anticipated a close contest, with the model predicting a 1.6 to 1.1 goal margin. The result mirrored the most likely scoreline identified by the betting models, which placed a 1-1 draw at 13 per cent and a 1-0 home win at 9 per cent. Prior to the match, the odds for an Italian victory had drifted from 2.59 to 2.48, a 3.9 per cent drop.