Vietnam Women vs Japan Women: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Japan are 65% to win. The visitors have taken all three recent meetings, including a 4:0 victory on 10 March, and sit top of the table with three points from one game. Vietnam remain winless.

The hosts have not found a result yet. They lost their opening match and have won one and lost four in their last five games, scoring just three goals while conceding 11. Their most recent outing ended 1:2 away to Chinese Taipei Women on 14 September, and before that a 0:3 defeat to China Women in a friendly. They have not beaten anyone since their 2:1 home victory over India Women on 4 March.

Japan opened their tournament with an 8:0 win against Thailand Women at home on 14 September. They have won three of their last five matches, though they lost twice — 0:1 and 0:3 against South Africa and the USA respectively. The model expects 1.9 goals, with Vietnam contributing 1.1. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 10%, 1:2 at 10%, and 0:1 at 9%.

Japan hit their stride between 61 and 75 minutes, accounting for 28% of their 39 goals. Their defence is most vulnerable between 46 and 60 minutes, accounting for 43% of the seven goals they have conceded. The draw probability sits at 22%, with both teams to score at 57% and three or more goals at 58%.

That projection falls apart if Vietnam exploit Japan's second-half leakiness. The visitors have conceded a third of their goals in that window, and a quick start from the hosts could shift the momentum before Japan find their rhythm in the final 15 minutes of the match.