RU EN DE
South Africa Australia 97/5 0 Meghalaya Manipur 380 230/6 Nagaland Mizoram 92/1 581/9d Assam Tripura 334 …200/6 Jammu & Kashmir Vidarbha …59/6 305 Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim 121 521/4 Matches →

Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9222 / 15572

9222hit
6350missed
1439Pending
15572checked predictions

Checked forecasts

Championnat National Miss
Hodio AS Cotonou

Prediction for Hodio — AS Cotonou

Draw

41%probability
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Championnat National Miss
Buffles Ayema

Prediction for Buffles — Ayema

Draw

43%probability
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First NL Miss
Opatija Vukovar

Prediction for Opatija — Vukovar

Win: Vukovar

72%probability
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Second League Hit
CSKA Sofia II Sportist Svoge

Prediction for CSKA Sofia II — Sportist Svoge

Win: CSKA Sofia II

70%probability
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1. Liga Promotion Miss
Bellinzona Breitenrain

Prediction for Bellinzona — Breitenrain

Win: Bellinzona

71%probability
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Second League Miss
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Montana

Prediction for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Montana

Win: Montana

58%probability
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First League Miss
Shinnik Yaroslavl SKA Khabarovsk

Prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl — SKA Khabarovsk

Win: Shinnik Yaroslavl

52%probability
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Torneo Federal A Miss
Circulo Deportivo Sol de Mayo

Prediction for Circulo Deportivo — Sol de Mayo

Win: Circulo Deportivo

51%probability
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Azadegan League Miss
Fard Alborz Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Prediction for Fard Alborz — Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Slight edge: Fard Alborz

43%probability
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Second League Hit
Beroe Yantra 2019

Prediction for Beroe — Yantra 2019

Win: Beroe

69%probability
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Division Intermedia Miss
Deportivo Capiatá 12 de Junio VH

Prediction for Deportivo Capiatá — 12 de Junio VH

Slight edge: 12 de Junio VH

40%probability
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Women's Championship Miss
Sheffield United Women Durham Women

Prediction for Sheffield United Women — Durham Women

Slight edge: Durham Women

44%probability
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Women's Championship Miss
Newcastle United Women Leicester City Women

Prediction for Newcastle United Women — Leicester City Women

Win: Leicester City Women

56%probability
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Women's Championship Miss
Southampton Women Nottingham Forest Women

Prediction for Southampton Women — Nottingham Forest Women

Win: Southampton Women

52%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.