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Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9230 / 15586

9230hit
6356missed
1482Pending
15586checked predictions

Checked forecasts

Primera C Miss
Lugano Estrella Del Sur

Prediction for Lugano — Estrella Del Sur

Slight edge: Lugano

40%probability
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MLS Next Pro Miss
New York Red Bulls II Huntsville City

Prediction for New York Red Bulls II — Huntsville City

Win: New York Red Bulls II

50%probability
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MLS Next Pro Hit
Connecticut Fc Fort Lauderdale CF

Prediction for Connecticut Fc — Fort Lauderdale CF

Win: Connecticut Fc

72%probability
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MLS Next Pro Miss
Columbus Crew II Carolina Core

Prediction for Columbus Crew II — Carolina Core

Win: Columbus Crew II

53%probability
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MLS Next Pro Miss
Bethlehem Steel New York City II

Prediction for Bethlehem Steel — New York City II

Win: Bethlehem Steel

50%probability
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Liga MX Femenil Hit
Pumas UNAM Women Puebla Women

Prediction for Pumas UNAM Women — Puebla Women

Win: Pumas UNAM Women

83%probability
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HNL Hit
Dinamo Zagreb NK Lokomotiva

Prediction for Dinamo Zagreb — NK Lokomotiva

Win: Dinamo Zagreb

66%probability
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Torneo Federal A Hit
Deportivo Rincón Santamarina

Prediction for Deportivo Rincón — Santamarina

Win: Deportivo Rincón

63%probability
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Torneo Federal A Miss
Villa Mitre Kimberley Mar del Plata

Prediction for Villa Mitre — Kimberley Mar del Plata

Slight edge: Villa Mitre

49%probability
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Torneo Federal A Miss
Sol de América 9 de Julio Rafaela

Prediction for Sol de América — 9 de Julio Rafaela

Win: Sol de América

57%probability
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Torneo Federal A Miss
Alvarado Olimpo de Bahía Blanca

Prediction for Alvarado — Olimpo de Bahía Blanca

Slight edge: Alvarado

49%probability
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Torneo Federal A Hit
Costa Brava Sol de Mayo

Prediction for Costa Brava — Sol de Mayo

Win: Costa Brava

69%probability
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Torneo Federal A Miss
Huracan Las Heras Atenas

Prediction for Huracan Las Heras — Atenas

Slight edge: Atenas

42%probability Odds2.18
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.