Valence beat Dunkerque 27:23 in the Coupe de France on Tuesday evening. The result came as a surprise to many watchers, myself included.
We had given the away side an 80 per cent chance of victory. And here's the thing — by then Dunkerque had lost four of their previous five matches, which made the prediction feel optimistic at best. Valence were not flawless either, winning two of five, but they were at home.
The match unfolded without any dramatic turning points that would have sent it one way or another early on. To be fair, both sides traded goals throughout, and Valence simply held their nerve when it mattered. They saw the game out rather than running away with it.
Recent form told a different story from what most expected. Dunkerque's run included defeats to Nîmes, Chambéry, Saint-Raphaël, and Cannes — only their win against Ivry offered a glimmer. Valence had dropped points to Val-d'Oise and Cherbourg but also beat Istres and Draguignan Var.
The final scoreline of 27:23 reflects a close contest without being particularly tight. It is two goals, not a shootout, but it was enough for the hosts to advance.
By then, the prediction had gone out of the window. The table goes out of the window in these games, but so do pre-match forecasts when you ignore what is actually happening on the ground.
