Afturelding vs Selfoss: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Afturelding to win. That advantage carries weight when both sides are equally winless in the league.

Both teams arrive with identical records in their last five matches: two draws and three defeats. Afturelding have played one fewer game than Selfoss, which matters in a season where momentum can shift quickly. Their recent form shows a pattern of narrow margins — the 33:33 draw with FH Hafnarfjörður and the 24:26 home loss to Thor Akureyri both fell within a single-goal range. Selfoss have mirrored this with a 34:34 draw against Stjarnan and a 27:30 away defeat to ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar. The goal difference tells the fuller story: Afturelding have conceded 12 goals fewer than they've scored across those five games, while Selfoss have been outscored by 14.

The only exception was a 27:27 draw at Selfoss in March 2026, which came after both sides had already established their winless patterns. Four victories from six meetings is not a margin to dismiss, particularly when two of those wins came at this venue.

The model's expectations align with that historical pattern. Afturelding's projected 31.7 goals reflects their ability to find the net in home fixtures, while Selfoss's 28.5 suggests a side that struggles to convert chances away from their own territory. The model assigns zero percent probability to a draw and zero percent to both teams scoring, which points toward a decisive result rather than a tight contest.

A draw would undermine this conclusion, and given how Selfoss have run recent matches — two draws in their last five — that remains the primary threat. If they adopt a similar approach and Afturelding fail to break through, the prediction collapses.