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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Celje vs Aalborg Håndbold: match prediction on 17 September 2026
Celje
Aalborg Håndbold
Prediction for
Win: Aalborg Håndbold
65%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
35%
1
65%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 17:53- Целе — 4. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Ольборг Хандбол — 2. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Целе, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Ольборг Хандбол, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Целе — 0, Ольборг Хандбол — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Celje
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Aalborg Håndbold
LWDDW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 2
0Celje
0Draw
2Aalborg Håndbold
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 17:53Aalborg Håndbold to win. The model expects them to score 36.3 goals compared to Celje's 29.5, and the visitors have won both Champions League meetings between these sides. That conclusion stops holding if Celje's home advantage proves decisive in a sport where venue familiarity matters.
Recent form
Celje have lost three of their last five matches, including defeats to Trimo Trebnje 31:39 and RK Zagreb 29:31. They managed wins against Skofljica 40:33 and Ivancna Gorica 35:21, but the overall record of two victories and three losses leaves them without points in the Champions League after one match.
Aalborg have been steadier. They drew with Bjerringbro-Silkeborg 30:30 and PSG 33:33, while beating Skjern Håndbold 33:30 and Holstebro TTH 31:29. One loss to Fredericia HK 26:33 brings their tally to two wins, two draws and one defeat across five games.
Head-to-head
Aalborg won the only Champions League meeting in the specified period, 34:31 in March 2023. The earlier fixture in September 2022 also went to the Danish side, 36:32 at their own venue. Two wins from two meetings gives the visitors a psychological edge.
Table position
After one match each, Aalborg sit third with one point from a loss. Celje occupy fourth place without any points after drawing their opener. The gap is small but the momentum belongs to the visitors.
Model prediction
The model projects Aalborg to score 36.3 goals and Celje 29.5. The draw probability sits at 0%, which aligns with the expected goals difference of 6.8. This prediction would not hold if Celje's home court advantage reverses a trend that has favoured the visitors in previous encounters.