Champions League
Prediction for Kolstad — HC Kriens-Luzern
57%
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Prediction for
Win: Fuchse Women
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 7
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 3 Sep, 16:09Fuchse Women are heavy favourites to win, backed by five victories in seven meetings and a form line that leaves Union St. Pölten Women winless in their last five outings. The model expects a 30:27 scoreline, and the home side's 29.9 expected goals put them well clear of their visitors' 26.5.
Fuchse Women have collected eight points from their last five WHA Women matches, winning twice and drawing twice. Their 151 goals scored against 146 conceded shows they can both fire and leak, but the results have been positive enough to keep them competitive. They took four points from two home games against Stockerau and Korneuburg, and added a 40:25 win over Dornbirn/Schoren. The 24:37 defeat at Atzgersdorf was their only loss in the period, and it came away from home.
Union St. Pölten Women have not won a single game in the same span. Five defeats, zero points, and a goal difference of 109:168. Their heaviest result was a 12:41 home loss to Atzgersdorf on 16 May, and they have lost every away fixture they have played in this period. The 37:40 home defeat to Feldkirch on 28 March was their most recent loss before the May run, and it shows the pattern has been consistent.
Head-to-head
Fuchse Women have won five of the seven meetings between the sides. The home advantage has mattered in this fixture, with the visitors only managing two wins from their away encounters.
The model expects Fuchse Women to score 29.9 goals and Union St. Pölten Women 26.5, pointing to a 30:27 result. The probability of a draw is listed at 0%, and the chance of three or more goals is also 0%. These figures suggest a narrow home win rather than a high-scoring affair, and the expected goals average means Fuchse will most often score one or two goals above their visitors' output.
A draw would break this conclusion. Union St. Pölten Women have shown they can compete when playing at home, winning two of their seven meetings, and if they manage to contain Fuchse's attack while capitalising on their own chances, the model's 0% draw probability would not hold. The visitors have nothing to lose in this fixture, and a point would be a significant result for them.
The head-to-head record and recent form both point to the home side, but the model's draw probability of 0% is a strong assumption, and Union St. Pölten's two home wins remind us that this pairing has produced surprises before. If the visitors can limit Fuchse to under 28 goals, the outcome changes.