Wisła Płock vs RK Vardar 1961: match prediction on 9 September 2026

RK Vardar 1961 to win. The visitors have won every match they have played in the last five weeks, while Wisła Płock have lost three of their last five and conceded 156 goals in that span. The model gives a 0% chance of a draw.

Form tells the story

RK Vardar 1961 have taken 15 points from 15 available, winning all five of their recent matches. They scored 168 goals and conceded 123, with victories coming against Eurofarm Pelister 2 (31:19), Nexe (33:27), and Olympiacos (39:27). The Macedonian side found rhythm quickly, opening their scoring in August and carrying momentum into September.

Wisła Płock managed just 4 points from 15 — one win, one draw, three losses. Their most recent game was a 19:46 defeat to MMTS Kwidzyn in the Superliga, exposing significant vulnerabilities in their defensive line. They scored 127 goals but let in 156, averaging over 31 goals conceded per match.

The model sees a clear winner

The statistical model projects 28.5 expected goals for Wisła Płock and 27.3 for RK Vardar 1961. The model expects goals to come from rapid counter-attacks and efficient 7m conversions, with Vardar's superior transition play likely to decide the outcome.

Both teams to score registers at 0%, and matches with three or more goals also show 0%. The expected goals are close, but the probability distribution does not favour parity.

Defensive records matter

Vardar conceded 123 goals in five matches — an average of 24.6 per game. Wisła Płock let in 156, averaging 31.2. That seven-goal gap per match is significant in a sport where margins are thin. Vardar's defensive solidity, combined with their attacking output, gives them an edge Wisła Płock may not overcome.

The Polish side's 19:46 loss to MMTS Kwidzyn on 4 September is instructive. They were outplayed at home by their own league opponents, a result that suggests confidence issues. Vardar, meanwhile, have not lost since August and appear to have found their best form.

Home advantage is not enough

Wisła Płock will host the match, but their home record in recent games offers little comfort. They beat Holstebro TTH 34:26 in a friendly. Their Superliga home defeat to MMTS Kwidzyn was comprehensive.

Vardar have won all five of their matches. Their away win against Butel Skopje (26:21) shows they can perform outside Macedonia. The visitors do not need to dominate — they simply need to avoid the mistakes that have plagued Wisła Płock.

When the prediction fails

This conclusion stops holding if Wisła Płock can contain Vardar's attack and exploit any complacency from the visitors. A draw suits the home side — and given how they have struggled to find consistency, that is the main threat. If the match stays tight and Wisła Płock capitalise on their home venue, the model's 0% draw probability could prove optimistic.