Millonarios vs Barranquilla: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Millonarios are the clear favourites to win on Sunday. They sit top of the Copa Colombia table with ten points from four matches and have not lost a single game this season. The model puts their expected goals at 2.5 to Barranquilla's 0.7, and the three most likely scorelines all show a home victory.

The hosts have collected ten points from their four league games without dropping any. Their last five matches across all competitions read three wins, one draw and one loss, with ten points and a goal difference of four. Only that defeat to Bucaramanga on 25 July breaks an otherwise solid run.

Barranquilla have found something different. Their last five games produced no wins, three draws and two losses, yielding just three points and a goal difference of minus two. They lost 0:1 to Internacional Palmira away on 25 August, then drew 2:2 with Real Santander and 2:2 with Depor FC. The 3:3 draw against Junior in the Copa Colombia on 29 July shows they can trade blows, but they also lost 0:1 to Orsomarso away on 26 July. They have not won any of their last five matches.

The draw probability sits at 15%, while both teams scoring is 47%. Three or more goals in the match come in at 62%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:0 at 13%, 3:0 at 11% and 1:0 at 10%. Millonarios have found 29% of their goals between 46 and 60 minutes and 27% after 76 minutes, while Barranquilla have conceded 28% of theirs in the 46-60 period and 24% in the opening fifteen.

If Barranquilla can hold the match at 1:1 or 0:0 through the middle periods, they could force extra time or penalties, a strategy grounded in their ability to trade blows as seen in the 3:3 draw against Junior.