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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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HK Malmö vs Ystads IF HF: match prediction on 11 September 2026
HK Malmö
Ystads IF HF
Prediction for
Win: HK Malmö
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
54%
1
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 18:00- ХК Мальмё — 2. place, 4 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Юстадс — 2. place, 2 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- ХК Мальмё, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Юстадс, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 14 games, ХК Мальмё — 6, 1 draws, Юстадс — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
HK Malmö
LWWLD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Ystads IF HF
LWWWD
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 14
6HK Malmö
1Draw
7Ystads IF HF
- 5 SepYstads IF HF — HK Malmö34:31
- 19 AprHK Malmö — Ystads IF HF34:28
- 16 AprYstads IF HF — HK Malmö29:30
- 12 AprHK Malmö — Ystads IF HF30:32
- 7 AprYstads IF HF — HK Malmö28:38
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 18:00HK Malmö to win against Ystads IF HF. The hosts carry four points from three Swedish Cup matches compared with Ystads' two. That margin is not wide, but it tips the balance toward the home side. The pick fails if it ends level or Ystads win.
Both teams sit second in the Swedish Cup table after three rounds, but the points tally tells the story. HK Malmö have two wins and a draw with no defeats, while Ystads IF HF have one victory and two draws, also unbeaten. The difference of two points matters when both sides are still pushing for the next round. Malmö's record suggests they close out results more efficiently than Ystads, who have drawn two of their three outings.
Recent form cuts both ways. Ystads won three of their last five matches, including the Swedish Cup fixture on 5 September where they beat Malmö 34:31 at home. Malmö won two and lost three in the same window, with goals at 165 for and 169 against. The contrast is clear: Ystads are scoring freely and conceding less (165:146), while Malmö's attack has been productive but their defence has leaked goals.
The head-to-head record over the past few years shows 14 meetings with Ystads edging ahead on 7 wins to Malmö's 6, with one draw. The most recent encounter ended 34:31 to Ystads in the Swedish Cup, but before that Malmö won 34:28 at home in April. Home advantage matters. Malmö play here. Ystads have won away in this fixture once (29:30 in April) but lost away the other time (30:32).
The model's projections point to a tight contest. Malmö are expected to score 31.6 goals on average, Ystads 29.9. The difference of 1.7 goals is marginal, but it aligns with Malmö's slightly better cup standing and their home record in recent meetings. The draw probability sits at 0% in the model.
A draw would suit Ystads given how they manage games. They have drawn two of three cup matches and tend to grind results rather than chase them. If the match stays tight and Ystads control the tempo in the second half, they could steal a point. That scenario breaks the prediction. Malmö need to start strongly and not let Ystads settle into their rhythm.