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SC Magdeburg vs Kiel THW: match prediction on 30 September 2026
SC Magdeburg
Kiel THW
Prediction for
Win: SC Magdeburg
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
56%
1
44%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Sep, 18:15- Магдебург — 3. place, 10 points after 6 games (5 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Киль — 2. place, 11 points after 6 games (5 wins, 1 losses)
- Магдебург, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Киль, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 10 games, Магдебург — 3, 2 draws, Киль — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
SC Magdeburg
WWWWW
5 wins
Kiel THW
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 11
3SC Magdeburg
2Draw
6Kiel THW
- 15 FebKiel THW — SC Magdeburg31:29
- 23 Dec 2025SC Magdeburg — Kiel THW26:26
- 8 Feb 2025Kiel THW — SC Magdeburg31:25
- 13 Nov 2024Kiel THW — SC Magdeburg29:28
- 22 Sep 2024SC Magdeburg — Kiel THW24:29
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Sep, 18:15SC Magdeburg seize top spot with victory
SC SC Magdeburg beat Kiel THW 32:26 in the Bundesliga to move into first place, three points clear of the visitors. Magdeburg stood third with 10 points after six matches before this fixture, while Kiel had led with 11 points following five wins and one defeat. The result shifted the hierarchy: Magdeburg climbed to the summit with 12 points from seven games and an unbeaten record of six wins and one draw, whereas Kiel dropped to third with 11 points after adding one loss to their tally.
SC Magdeburg carried momentum from a run of four victories and one defeat in their previous five matches, scoring 176 goals and conceding 144 in those fixtures, while Kiel had won three, drawn one and lost one in their last five outings. In domestic competition Magdeburg’s last five league games produced 176 goals for and 144 against, and Kiel’s recent five league matches netted 155 goals for and 139 against. The home side won four of the eight matches they played in September 2026, while Kiel picked up three wins, a draw and one defeat across the same period.
The visitors had dominated previous meetings; in ten matches over recent years Kiel won five, SC Magdeburg claimed three and two games ended in draws. Kiel had won the last two head-to-head encounters: 31:29 at home in February 2026 and 29:28 in the DHB Pokal in November 2024, while Magdeburg had won 24:29 in September 2024 and drawn 26:26 in December 2025. Kiel had also won 31:25 in February 2025. Magdeburg’s win on 30 September 2026 broke that pattern and completed a 4-1 advantage in direct meetings over the same span, with Kiel’s previous five-match winning run ending in the league.
A statistical model had predicted SC Magdeburg to score 29.9 goals and Kiel 28.3, with a 0% probability of a draw and a 0% chance that both teams would score. The six-goal margin exceeded the model’s expectation, and the result meant Magdeburg took over the top position in the table, leaving Kiel in third place with one game remaining to close the gap.