Stella Sports Saint-Maur Women vs Nice Women: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Nice Women are clear favourites for this Ligue Butagaz Énergie fixture on 29 August 2026, and the numbers back that assessment. The model puts their expected goal output at 28.8 against Stella Sports Saint-Maur's 26.6, while assigning a 0% probability to a draw. Nice have won every meeting in the past five seasons, and their recent form—four victories from five outings—demonstrates consistency that Stella's two wins cannot match.

Stella's last five matches tell a story of inconsistency. They lost away to Clermont 27:30 and Paris 92 29:32, but managed home victories over Dijon 27:26 and Clermont 28:24. The heavier defeat came away to Metz Women 25:50, a result that exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Across those five games they scored 136 goals and conceded 162, a negative differential that suggests they struggle to contain opponents over the full duration.

Nice's trajectory runs in the opposite direction. They lost only once in their last five, a 22:32 home defeat to Brest Bretagne Women, and won four matches including away victories at Saint-Amand 22:21 and Achenheim 22:18. Their goal tally of 123 scored to 120 conceded shows tighter control. They have not dropped points since that loss, building momentum that could prove decisive.

On every occasion Nice outscored their opponents, often by comfortable margins.

Nice win, and the model's 0% draw probability reinforces that position. The prediction would not hold if Stella's defensive structure improves significantly or if Nice suffer an early setback that forces them to chase the game, but those scenarios are not reflected in the current data.