Szigetszentmiklósi KSK vs Balatonfuredi: match prediction on 16 October 2026

Balatonfuredi defeat Szigetszentmiklósi KSK 30-23

Balatonfuredi moved clear of Szigetszentmiklósi KSK in the NB I standings with a 30-23 victory at the home venue of their opponents on 16 October 2026. The result took Balatonfűredi off the bottom of the table, moving them above the hosts who remain in tenth place. Both clubs started the weekend with four points from five matches, but the loss leaves Szigetszentmiklósi KSK with a negative goal difference in the standings relative to their recent form.

The match followed a pattern established in recent meetings, where Balatonfuredi have won two of the last three encounters. The previous fixture between these sides in the 2025-26 season ended in a 29-25 win for Balatonfűredi on 14 March. Before that, Szigetszentmiklósi KSK had secured a 25-19 victory in October 2025. The 30-23 scoreline on Saturday reflected a tighter contest than the spring meeting but maintained the trend of Balatonfűredi superiority in head-to-head records over the past year.

Statistics from the match indicate a disciplined performance from the visitors, who scored seven more goals than they conceded. Balatonfuredi enter this fixture having scored 149 goals in their last five games while conceding 151, showing an average of nearly 30 goals per match. Szigetszentmiklósi KSK’s recent form shows a similar offensive output, scoring 146 goals in five matches, but their defensive record has been weaker, conceding 165 goals in the same period. The 23 goals conceded by the hosts suggests a continuation of that defensive vulnerability against a more effective visiting attack.

The outcome alters the immediate standing of the two clubs. Balatonfuredi, previously in eleventh place, now sit above Szigetszentmiklósi KSK with five points from six matches. The hosts remain on four points after six games, having accumulated one win, two draws, and three losses. The victory gives Balatonfűredi momentum after a mixed run of results, including losses to Gyor and Szeged in September. Szigetszentmiklósi KSK’s defeat ends a streak of one win and two draws in their last three outings.

A prediction model published prior to the match had estimated identical expected goals for both sides at 27.1, suggesting an even contest. The model also predicted a 0% probability for a draw and a 0% probability for both teams to score, alongside a 0% probability for three or more goals difference. The actual result, a seven-goal margin, deviated significantly from the expected outcome, indicating that the model did not account for the disparity in defensive efficiency displayed during the match.