TV Stuttgart vs Erlangen: match prediction on 24 September 2026

TV Stuttgart win, 55% confidence.

The model puts Stuttgart 0.6 goals ahead (28.5 to 27.9), and that edge matters in a knockout match where margins are razor-thin. Erlangen have dominated this fixture historically — four wins in seven — but Stuttgart won the most recent meeting 22:17 on 7 June 2026, and the model's expectation of goals suggests a tighter, more open contest than those older results imply.

Both sides arrive with identical records: two wins, one draw, two losses across five matches, seven points apiece. Stuttgart have netted 153 goals and conceded 157; Erlangen have scored 153 and let in 154. The numbers are almost indistinguishable, which is why the model's slight preference for the home side matters more than the surface form.

The head-to-head tells a different story from the recent meeting. Of the seven encounters since December 2023, Erlangen have won four, Stuttgart two, with one draw. Erlangen's victories came at home in 2024 and 2023, and Stuttgart's lone win in that span was the 22:17 result in June. The pattern suggests Erlangen perform better at home, but this time the match is at Stuttgart's venue.

Both teams won their DHB Pokal opening rounds comfortably — Stuttgart 39:26 against Horkheim, Erlangen 37:26 versus HSG Hanau on 21 August 2026 — so neither side is fatigued or rattled. The model's expected goals of 28.5 for Stuttgart and 27.9 for Erlangen point to a match decided by a single goal, which favours the side the model trusts slightly more.