Almetyevsk vs Toros Neftekamsk: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Almetyevsk have won every game this season, averaging more than four goals per match in their last five outings, while the model puts their expected goals at 3.5 against Toros's 2.2. The most likely scorelines — 3:2, 3:1, 4:2 — all end with the home side victorious.

Almetyevsk are unbeaten in six matches, a perfect record that has taken them to the top of the VHL table. In the last five games they scored 21 goals and conceded just seven, winning all of them. 2:0 against Izhevsk, 6:2 over Olympia, 6:1 at Kristall Saratov, 3:1 away at Dizel, and 4:3 at Tambov.

Toros Neftekamsk sit ninth after six matches, with three wins and three losses. Three wins and two defeats in their last five matches, 16 goals scored and 14 conceded, leaves them well off the pace.

The head-to-head record over recent years favours Almetyevsk. In 13 meetings they have won 9 and Toros 4. Toros won 2:1 in August 2026 and 3:2 in February 2026.

The model expects 3.5 goals for Almetyevsk and 2.2 for Toros. Both teams to score stands at 86%, and 92% for three or more goals. The three most probable scorelines — 3:2 at 6%, 3:1 at 5%, 4:2 at 5% — all point to a home win. The figures do not suggest a tight contest.

A draw would be the scenario that upsets this conclusion. Toros have shown they can score — four against CSK VVS, five against SKA-VMF — and they have won two of the last six meetings between these sides. If they sit back and absorb pressure, a stalemate becomes possible. That is the only way the home side's dominance is called into question.

Almetyevsk win. The confidence is 70%. A draw breaks the prediction — and given Toros's tendency to come out and open up in recent matches, that is the main threat to the prediction.