Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Avangard Omsk vs Sochi: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Avangard Omsk
Sochi
Prediction for
Win: Avangard Omsk
74%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
74%
1
12%
X
14%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:46- Авангард Омск — 6. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Авангард Омск, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Сочи, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Авангард Омск — 7, Сочи — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Avangard Omsk
LWWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Sochi
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 16
15Avangard Omsk
0Draw
1Sochi
- 4 Dec 2025Avangard Omsk — Sochi5:2
- 4 Mar 2025Sochi — Avangard Omsk2:3
- 4 Dec 2024Avangard Omsk — Sochi6:0
- 21 Dec 2023Avangard Omsk — Sochi8:3
- 4 Nov 2023Sochi — Avangard Omsk2:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:46The model favours a home win at 74% confidence. Avangard Omsk have won seven of eight meetings against Sochi, and the model puts their expected goals at 3.9 to 1.9. The service pick is a win for the hosts. The only way this falls apart is if Sochi manage to keep the game tight for two periods and force overtime — something they have struggled to do when facing this side.
Form does not lie
Both clubs sit on zero points after one KHL match, but the recent picture tells a different story. Avangard took two wins from their last five games, including a 4:3 victory over Nizhnekamsk and a 2:1 win against Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. They conceded 16 goals in that span, which is not pretty, but they also found the net ten times. Sochi went the other way entirely. Five defeats in five matches, scoring only five goals while letting in twenty. Their most recent outing was a 1:5 loss away to Nizhnekamsk on 8 September.
The history between them
Avangard have not just beaten Sochi — they have dominated them. The 8:3 win at home in December 2023 and the 6:0 shutout in December 2024 stand out. Sochi's sole win came in a club friendly in August 2023, 3:1 at their own rink. The competitive record tells the real story: Avangard won five of six KHL and regular encounters, with the only exception being the 2:3 defeat in Sochi in March 2025.
What the numbers say
The model expects Avangard to score nearly four goals and Sochi just under two. A draw is priced at 12%, which feels right — Sochi rarely come away with points here. Both teams to score sits at 83%, and three or more goals in the match at 93%. The three most likely scorelines are 3:1, 4:1 and 3:2, each hovering around five to six percent. That spread points to a comfortable home win rather than a tight affair.
A win for Avangard stops making sense if Sochi find a way to frustrate them into extra time. They have not won a game in five attempts, but they did edge a friendly here once. If the puck stays in their zone and the visitors run the clock down, the model's figures mean nothing. If Sochi park the bus and run the clock down, the model breaks down.