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Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins: match prediction on 14 October 2026

NHL United Center Chicago Miss Match page
Chicago Blackhawks Pittsburgh Penguins

Prediction for

Win: Pittsburgh Penguins

54%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

31% 1
15% X
54% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 13 Oct, 01:05

Pittsburgh Penguins to win, backed by their superior form and recent dominance over Chicago. Pittsburgh's expected goals of 3.5 exceed Chicago's 2.9, and the model's most likely scoreline is 2:3 to the visitors.

Form and Standing

Chicago's record of one win and five losses leaves them in eighth place after six matches. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, have three wins from six games and sit seventh. Their recent results show a 6:5 thriller against Montreal and a 2:1 win over Dallas, though they have also lost to Columbus and Washington.

Head-to-Head Pattern

The Penguins have won five of the last eight meetings between these sides. Recent results include Pittsburgh's 6:2 victory at home in January 2026, a 7:3 away win in December 2025, and a 5:0 shutout in April 2025. Chicago's wins came in April 2025 and October 2023, both at home. The visitors have not lost to Chicago at home since October 2023.

Goal Expectations

The model projects Chicago to score 2.9 goals and Pittsburgh 3.5, with a 92% probability both teams will find the net. Three or more goals are expected in 95% of simulations, with the most likely outcomes being 2:3 and 3:3, each at 5%. Chicago have scored just 10 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2 per game, while Pittsburgh have netted 15 in the same period.

Injury Situation

Pittsburgh face several absences: Brian Rust and Tristan Broz missed training with injury concerns, while Blake Lizotte, Justin Brazeau, Ben Kindel and Ryan Graves are on the injured list. Chicago have no confirmed injury reports available. Pittsburgh's squad depth could be tested if multiple players cannot recover in time.

Conditions That Would Break This

A draw suits neither side, but Chicago would need to contain Pittsburgh's attack while capitalising on their own limited chances. If Pittsburgh's injured players return and strengthen their lineup, or if Chicago's defence finds a way to limit the Penguins to under three goals, this conclusion would not hold. The model's 16% draw probability suggests a tight game remains possible.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 13 Oct, 01:05
  • Чикаго Блэкхоукс — 8. place, 0 points after 6 games (1 wins, 5 losses)
  • Питтсбург Пингвинс — 7. place, 0 points after 6 games (3 wins, 3 losses)
  • Чикаго Блэкхоукс, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • Питтсбург Пингвинс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Чикаго Блэкхоукс — 3, Питтсбург Пингвинс — 5

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Chicago Blackhawks WLLWW 3 wins · 2 losses
Pittsburgh Penguins LLLWL 1 win · 4 losses

Head to head 10

4Chicago Blackhawks 0Draw 6Pittsburgh Penguins
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+