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CSK VVS vs Perm: match prediction on 21 September 2026
CSK VVS
Perm
Prediction for
Slight edge: CSK VVS
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
43%
1
19%
X
38%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 16:12- ЦСК ВВС — 18. place, 0 points after 6 games (2 wins, 4 losses)
- Пермь — 2. place, 0 points after 5 games (5 wins, 0 losses)
- ЦСК ВВС, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Пермь, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, ЦСК ВВС — 0, Пермь — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
CSK VVS
LLLLL
5 losses
Perm
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 9
1CSK VVS
0Draw
8Perm
- 9 FebPerm — CSK VVS4:2
- 10 Dec 2024Perm — CSK VVS2:1
- 30 Nov 2024CSK VVS — Perm2:3
- 21 Jan 2024CSK VVS — Perm3:6
- 6 Oct 2023Perm — CSK VVS3:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 16:12Perm are the favourites but this is closer than the table suggests. They come into Sunday's fixture unbeaten in five games and have won every head-to-head since 2021, yet the model expects CSK VVS to score 2.4 goals to Perm's 2.3, and the most probable outcome is a 2:2 draw. Perm win seems likely, but the margin is thin.
Perm have not lost since the season opened. Five wins from five, 15 scored and 9 conceded, including a 4:2 over Toros Neftekamsk. CSK VVS sit 21st after seven matches with just two wins and five defeats. Their last five games produced two victories and three losses, including a heavy 0:4 home defeat to Toros Neftekamsk on 19 September.
The history between these sides is one-sided. Perm have won all six recorded encounters, the most recent being a 4:2 victory on 9 February 2026. Yet the model does not reflect that dominance in its expected goals, which puts the hosts slightly ahead on paper. The draw probability sits at 19%, and both teams to score comes in at 82%.
Perm have not dropped points away this season. The hosts have shown they can win at home — victories against Izhevsk and Olympia in their last five — but they have also lost three of those seven matches, including two away defeats.
The prediction for Perm to win stops holding if the match stays tight and CSK VVS hold their ground. A draw suits the hosts, and with the model expecting 2.4 goals from them, they have the firepower to get something. The 2:2 scoreline carries the highest probability at 7%, and the 19% draw chance is substantial for a fixture where one side has never lost to the other in recorded history. If Perm cannot break down a resolute CSK VVS defence, the points could be shared.