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CSK VVS vs SKA-VMF St. Petersburg: match prediction on 12 October 2026

VHL SKK Vysotsky Sports Palace Samara Pending Match page
CSK VVS SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

Prediction for

Slight edge: CSK VVS

44%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

44% 1
21% X
35% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 16:05

CSK VVS will not lose to SKA-VMF St. Petersburg on 12 October. Confidence 62%.

The head-to-head record carries weight here that recent form does not. CSK VVS won both meetings between these sides this season. On 15 November 2025 they beat SKA-VMF 6:1 at home. Two matches, two victories, zero for the visitors. That pattern persists despite the table position that puts CSK VVS at the bottom.

Recent results tell a different story. SKA-VMF has won four of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just five. They beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 3:0 at home on 5 October and took three points from Zvezda Moscow away on 30 September. CSK VVS has lost four straight. They conceded eight goals to Khimik on 6 October and five to Gornyak on 2 October. Their only win in that span was 5:4 away at Chelmet Chelyabinsk on 30 September.

The analysis does not follow the form narrative. It gives CSK VVS 2.3 expected goals to SKA-VMF's 2.1. The most likely scorelines are 2:2, 2:1, and 1:1, each at 7%. The draw probability sits at 21%, while both teams scoring is priced at 80%. Eighty-two percent of simulated matches produce three or more goals.

A draw suits the visitors. SKA-VMF's recent form shows they can grind results, and if they control the tempo they can take a point. But if SKA-VMF keeps the game tight and avoids the mistakes that cost them against Dinamo St. Petersburg, the draw becomes the realistic outcome.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 16:05
  • ЦСК ВВС — 25. place, 0 points after 15 games (4 wins, 11 losses)
  • ЦСК ВВС, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • СКА-ВМФ Санкт-Петербург, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 2 games, ЦСК ВВС — 2, СКА-ВМФ Санкт-Петербург — 0

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

CSK VVS WLLLL 1 win · 4 losses
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg WWWLW 4 wins · 1 loss

Head to head 2

2CSK VVS 0Draw 0SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+