Gornyak vs Almetyevsk: match prediction on 4 October 2026

Almetyevsk to win. and sit top of the table, but their recent form—two wins in five—makes them vulnerable. Gornyak have won four of their last five and are dangerous at home, yet the model expects 3 goals for Almetyevsk against 2.8 for the hosts.

Gornyak have collected 12 points from their last five matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding 10. They beat CSK VVS 5:2 at home on 2 October and won three away games in a row before losing 1:3 to SKA-VMF St. Petersburg. Almetyevsk have taken only 6 points from their last five, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 2:4 defeat away to Chelmet Chelyabinsk on 2 October. They won 2:1 away at Magnitka Magnitogorsk on 30 September but lost two of their other three games.

The visitors have dominated this fixture. Almetyevsk lost 2:3 away on 17 February 2026 and 3:5 away on 13 December 2024. They won 2:0 at home on 5 October 2025 and 4:1 away on 26 November 2023. Gornyak won 5:1 at home on 3 December 2024 and 5:4 at home on 16 November 2023. Almetyevsk have struggled to maintain their advantage, but they still hold the edge.

The table shows Almetyevsk in second place after 11 matches with 8 wins and 3 losses. Gornyak sit in tenth place after 8 matches with 7 wins and 1 loss. The gap in games played matters—Almetyevsk have a fuller sample, but Gornyak's win rate of 87.5% is higher than Almetyevsk's 72.7%. The visitors have more points overall, but the hosts are on a better run.

The model projects 2.8 goals for Gornyak and 3 for Almetyevsk. The draw probability sits at 18%, while both teams to score is 89% and three or more goals 93%. The most likely scorelines are 2:3, 2:2, and 3:3, each at 5%. The model expects a high-scoring affair with a slight edge to the visitors. The 89% chance of both teams scoring supports the idea that Gornyak will find the net despite their away-heavy recent schedule.

The conclusion holds unless Almetyevsk rediscover their form. They have lost three of their last five and conceded 12 goals in that span. It also fails if Gornyak suffer a setback—they have played only one home game in their last five, so familiarity with their own ice could be a factor. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.