Herlev vs Sönderjyske Ishockey: match prediction on 23 September 2026

Herlev are the favourites to win this Metal Ligaen fixture, and the model puts that outcome at 62%. The side sits higher in the table, has won four of the last five meetings, and the expected-goals figures point to a 3.8 to 2.5 split. The prediction holds unless the visitors find a way to contain the hosts' attack or turn their own sporadic chances into goals.

The two sides arrive in similar states. Herlev have played four games, won one and lost three, sitting seventh on zero points. Sønderjyske have played five, won one and lost four, ninth on zero points. In the last five outings each team has managed one victory and four defeats, with Herlev scoring 13 and conceding 18, Sønderjyske 10 and 21. The hosts lost 1:5 at home to Odense on 20 September and 3:6 at home to Herning Blue Fox in April, while the visitors lost 5:0 away to Herning and 7:3 away to Frederikshavn.

Herlev have the edge in the rivalry. In 27 meetings over recent years the hosts have 18 wins to Sønderjyske's 9. The only recent loss for the hosts came 6:2 in Sønderjyske's favour on 24 February. That run of dominance gives Herlev a psychological advantage that the model does not factor in.

The numerical model expects a high-scoring affair. It projects 90% for both teams to score and 95% for three or more goals. The most likely scorelines are 3:2 and 4:2, each at 5%, followed by 3:3 at 4%. A draw probability of 15% is low, reflecting the expectation that one side will pull clear. The service prediction of a Herlev win at 62% aligns with those figures.

The model breaks down if Sønderjyske can slow the game down and frustrate the hosts. The visitors have shown they can score — they beat Rungsted 3:2 at home on 20 September — but they have also conceded five times in a single match twice. If they keep the score tight and Herlev fail to break through early, a draw becomes the main threat. A second goal for Sønderjyske in the opening exchanges would change the shape of the match entirely.