Hermes vs KeuPa: match prediction on 11 September 2026

Hermes win, 64% confidence. The visitor has lost every game this pre-season while the host has at least one victory in the last five, and the model expects 3.8 goals for Hermes against 2.4 for KeuPa.

Hermes have not carried momentum into the new campaign. Their last five matches produced one win and four defeats, with 15 goals scored and 27 conceded. The 6:3 victory over RoKi Rovaniemi on 27 August was the only positive result, but the side also dropped 2:7 and 3:8 defeats to IPK earlier in the season. They are not yet sharp.

KeuPa are in worse shape. Five defeats from five games, eight goals scored and 23 conceded, zero points. The side lost 1:4 away to Pyry Nokian on 3 September and 1:3 at home two days later. They also suffered 3:8 and 1:3 defeats to TUTO Hockey and a 2:5 loss to IPK. Nothing has worked.

The head-to-head record favours Hermes. Twenty-two meetings have produced 14 wins for the host and eight for KeuPa. The most recent fixture on 24 February 2026 ended 4:1 to Hermes at KeuPa's rink, but earlier in February KeuPa won 5:2 at home. Results have been mixed, though Hermes have won three of the last four matches at their own venue.

The model expects a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score is 89%, three or more goals 94%. The most likely scorelines are 3:2, 4:2 and 3:1, each at 5%. A draw suits KeuPa — and given how they have struggled to score, that is the main threat. If KeuPa manage to keep the game tight and the model's goal expectations are wrong by more than one goal in either direction, the prediction fails.