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HV71 vs Skellefteå AIK: match prediction on 24 September 2026
HV71
Skellefteå AIK
Prediction for
Win: Skellefteå AIK
51%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
31%
1
18%
X
51%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 23 Sep, 18:01- ХВ71 — 8. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Шеллефтео — 2. place, 0 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- ХВ71, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Шеллефтео, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 16 games, ХВ71 — 6, Шеллефтео — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
HV71
LLLLL
5 losses
Skellefteå AIK
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 20
6HV71
0Draw
14Skellefteå AIK
- 5 FebHV71 — Skellefteå AIK1:4
- 8 JanSkellefteå AIK — HV713:2
- 4 Dec 2025HV71 — Skellefteå AIK4:3
- 11 Oct 2025Skellefteå AIK — HV718:3
- 15 Feb 2025Skellefteå AIK — HV711:2
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 23 Sep, 18:01Skellefteå AIK to win
Skellefteå AIK are the clear favourites for this SHL encounter, and the weight of evidence points to a visitors' victory. They have won five consecutive matches, scoring 25 goals while conceding just eight, while HV71 have lost three of their last five outings and failed to keep a clean sheet. The head-to-head record reinforces the picture: Skellefteå have claimed four victories in the last six meetings between these sides.
Skellefteå are projected to score 3.0 goals on average across model simulations of this match, compared with 2.5 for HV71. Those figures translate into a 18% probability of a draw, with 2:3 and 2:2 each sitting at 6% as the most likely outcomes. The 88% chance that both sides find the net and 91% probability of three or more goals suggests they will trade chances.
HV71's most recent result offers a cautionary tale. They lost 4:5 at home to Malmö Redhawks on 19 September, a match in which they showed they can score but also exposed vulnerabilities at the back. Their form over the last five games reads 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, with a goal difference of 13 for and 16 against. That is not a record that inspires confidence going into a fixture against a side that has not dropped a point this season.
They sit second in the table after one game, having won their opener 7:2 against Brynäs at home. HV71, meanwhile, are eighth after losing their opening fixture. Skellefteå have won every match they have played since August, while HV71 have struggled to string victories together.
This conclusion would not hold if HV71's new signing Pavol Regenda, the Slovakian forward who joined from San Jose Sharks on 19 September, immediately transforms their attack. If HV71's attack clicks from the opening period and they match Skellefteå's output, the visitors' edge evaporates.
Skellefteå 3:2 HV71. HV71 must score first and hold the line. If they trail early and chase the game, Skellefteå's recent dominance — five wins, zero losses — tells us exactly where this is heading. Confidence: 65%