Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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KalPa vs Mikkelin Jukurit: match prediction on 4 September 2026
KalPa
Mikkelin Jukurit
Prediction for
Win: KalPa
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
64%
1
15%
X
20%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 16:49- КалПа, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Миккелин Юкурит, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 22 games, КалПа — 13, Миккелин Юкурит — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
KalPa
WWLWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Mikkelin Jukurit
LLLWW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 37
20KalPa
0Draw
17Mikkelin Jukurit
- 7 AugKalPa — Mikkelin Jukurit3:2
- 7 FebKalPa — Mikkelin Jukurit2:0
- 6 FebMikkelin Jukurit — KalPa0:2
- 29 Oct 2025KalPa — Mikkelin Jukurit5:3
- 22 Oct 2025Mikkelin Jukurit — KalPa2:1
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 16:49KalPa to win. The model's expected goals—3.3 for the hosts against 1.9 for the visitors—point in one direction, and the head-to-head record reinforces it: KalPa have won 13 of 22 meetings, Jukurit 9. I see no reason to doubt that pattern holds when the puck drops in Kuopio.
Recent form
KalPa's last five matches read two wins and three losses, 14 goals for, 13 against. The 1:5 defeat away to Jäähonka Espoo on 1 September was a warning. Before that came a 5:2 friendly win over JYP, a 3:1 victory away to IFK Helsingfors, a 2:3 loss at Karpat, and a 3:2 friendly win over Jukurit at home on 7 August. The pattern is uneven—some sharpness, some vulnerability.
Jukurit's five matches show three wins and two losses, 9 goals for, 11 against. They lost 1:4 at home to Hämeenlinna on 1 September, then 1:5 away to SaiPa. The wins came against Kiekko-Pojat Joensuu 3:1, KooKoo 2:1, and JYP 2:0. Both sides have lost their opening Liiga game this season, KalPa 17th, Jukurit 16th, so the pressure is mutual.
Head-to-head context
The numbers favour the home side. KalPa 13 wins, Jukurit 9 across 22 matches. The friendly on 7 August ended 3:2 to KalPa. In league play, KalPa won 2:0 at home in February 2026, then Jukurit lost 0:2 away. Earlier in that same month, KalPa thrashed them 9:2 in Mikkeli. The away end has struggled here.
What the model says
The expected goals figures are clear: KalPa 3.3, Jukurit 1.9. The draw probability sits at 15%, both teams to score at 82%, three or more goals at 89%. The three most likely scorelines are 3:1, 3:2, and 2:1, each at 6%. These are not certainties—they are averages across simulated versions of the match. KalPa most often score one or two goals, but the model pushes toward three.
Where the prediction breaks
A draw suits Jukurit—they know how to run the clock down and frustrate. If they absorb pressure and hit on the counter, the 15% probability stops being a footnote. KalPa's high line has been picked apart before, and one mistake ends it.