Kurhan vs Dizel: match prediction on 13 October 2026

Dizel are the favourites and I see no reason to doubt that. They sit 21st in the table with five wins from twelve games, while Kurhan languish in 28th with only two victories from eleven. Dizel have won both meetings this season — a 3–1 victory at Kurhan in December and a 1–0 win at home in the reverse fixture. Their recent form backs that up: three wins from their last five matches, scoring twelve goals and conceding just six. Kurhan have managed only one win in their last five, netting seven and letting in fourteen.

The model expects Dizel to edge the scoring 2.4 to 2.0, which puts them ahead even on a conservative read. The most likely scorelines all point away from Kurhan: 1–2 at 7%, 2–2 at 7%, and 1–1 at 7%. The draw probability sits at 21%, well below the 79% chance both sides find the net and the 81% likelihood of three or more goals. Dizel's attack has been productive — they scored five against Norilsk and three against both Altay and Krasnoyarsk. Kurhan's defence has not been tested in the same way, but they have lost four of their last five home games, conceding nine goals in those matches.

Kurhan's only win in their last five came away to Altay 3–2, but their last four home games have all ended in defeat. They lost 0–3 to Tambov, 2–3 to Voronezh, 2–3 to Tyumen, and 0–3 to Yugra. That is a pattern of struggle at home, and Dizel have already exploited it twice this season. The visitors have also shown they can grind out results — their 1–0 win over Kurhan at home was a tight affair, and they kept clean sheets in three of their last five matches.

The table positions tell a story of two teams in the bottom half, both showing zero points despite having wins — a quirk of the league structure that does not change the fact Dizel have played more games and won more of them. Kurhan have eleven matches under their belt, Dizel twelve. The gap in quality is visible in the head-to-head record and in the goal difference over the last five games: Kurhan minus seven, Dizel plus six. Neither team has any reported injuries or suspensions, so the line-ups should be at full strength.

Dizel to win — 48% confidence. This conclusion stops holding if Kurhan produce a defensive performance similar to their first meeting this season, when they kept the score to 1–3 despite losing. A draw suits neither side particularly, but given how Kurhan have been conceding at home, a result outside the 79% both-teams-to-score probability would be the main threat to this pick. The model's expected goals suggest Dizel are likely to score first, and once they do, Kurhan have to come out — which is exactly where Dizel have been dangerous.