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Lukko vs Vaasan Sport: match prediction on 17 September 2026
Lukko
Vaasan Sport
Prediction for
Win: Lukko
68%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
68%
1
14%
X
17%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 16:33- Лукко — 11. place, 0 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Васаас Спорт — 8. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Лукко, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Васаас Спорт, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 22 games, Лукко — 12, Васаас Спорт — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Lukko
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Vaasan Sport
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 32
17Lukko
0Draw
15Vaasan Sport
- 17 JanVaasan Sport — Lukko6:1
- 26 Dec 2025Lukko — Vaasan Sport2:1
- 1 Nov 2025Vaasan Sport — Lukko2:1
- 31 Oct 2025Lukko — Vaasan Sport3:2
- 2 Apr 2025Vaasan Sport — Lukko1:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 16:33Lukko are the edge here. The model puts them at 3.4 expected goals against Vaasan Sport's 1.8, and at home they have not lost to this side in any of the last six meetings. A straight win for Lukko is the call, confidence 68%.
.. The most recent encounter at Rauma ended 2:1 to Lukko in December, and before that a 3:2 win in October.. That pattern suggests the home advantage carries weight beyond the current form.
Lukko's recent record reads poorly on paper — one win in five matches — but two of those defeats came in friendlies against Hämeenlinna and Ässät. In league action they have lost 0:5 to JYP and 0:2 to Ilves Tampere, both at home. The 7:2 win over Jokerit shows they can score, but the defensive side has been porous, conceding 21 goals across five games. That is a problem, but one that may not persist against a Vaasan Sport attack that has also struggled.
Vaasan Sport sit 10th with two wins and three losses from five matches. Their last five show similar inconsistency: a 2:1 home win over TPS Turku and a 5:4 victory against Jokerit, but heavy defeats on the road — 1:5 to Ässät, 0:4 to Jukurit, 3:6 to Pelicans. The away form is the concern. They have won just one match outside their own arena this season, and that was the 5:4 win over Jokerit, which came before their three consecutive road losses.
The head-to-head tells a different story when you look at the bigger picture. Across 22 meetings in recent years Lukko have 12 wins to Vaasan Sport's 10. The margin is narrow, but the home record tilts it. Vaasan Sport's 6:1 win in January was an outlier, and since then Lukko have won two of three. The model's 81% probability for both teams to score reflects the attacking intent on both sides, while the 14% draw probability points away from a stalemate.
The service pick is Lukko to win. The conditions where that conclusion stops holding are clear. If Vaasan Sport replicate their January performance with a early goal and a defensive block, the home side could struggle to respond. Lukko's recent defensive record means a quick away goal puts them on the back foot. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they have run matches on the road, that is the main threat.
Outcome: Lukko win. Confidence: 68%.