Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice Dynamo: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Pardubice Dynamo are tipped for victory. The visitors have dominated this fixture for years — 13 wins against 4 in the last 17 meetings — and their recent results carry more weight than Mlada Boleslav's shaky home form. The expected goals figures suggest Pardubice to edge ahead 2.6 to 2.2, and the probable scorelines lean away from the hosts.

Recent form

Mlada Boleslav have won two of their last five matches but lost three, conceding 13 goals while scoring 11. Their home record is particularly worrying: they dropped points against Karlovy Vary 1:4 and lost friendlies to Kladno and Litvínov. Pardubice Dynamo, meanwhile, have won three of five and lost two, with a much more attacking output — 21 goals for and 16 against. Their 6:3 win away to KooKoo in the Champions Hockey League shows they can score freely on the road.

League position

Pardubice sit fourth after four matches with nine points, while Mlada Boleslav are seventh after three with six. The gap in games played matters less than the quality of results. Pardubice have already faced tougher opposition — Liberec Bílí Tygři, Mountfield HK — and though they lost to both, they also beat Karlovy Vary comfortably. Mlada Boleslav's single defeat came against Sparta Prague, but their other results include two friendlies against lesser opposition.

Head-to-head record

Of the 17 matches played between these sides in recent years, Pardubice have won 13 and Mlada Boleslav just 4. The last meeting on 16 January 2026 saw Mlada Boleslav win 4:2, but before that Pardubice won five of the previous six encounters. The 0:2 loss for the hosts in October 2025 and the 4:1 defeat in September 2025 suggest the pattern holds when Pardubice control the game.

Goal expectations

Expected goals figures show Pardubice at 2.6 and Mlada Boleslav at 2.2. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 83%, and 86% chance of three or more goals in the match. The most likely scoreline is 2:2 at 7%, followed by 1:2 and 2:3 both at 6%. These figures suggest a tight contest but one where Pardubice's higher ceiling gives them the edge.

A draw suits Mlada Boleslav — they have nothing to lose and could sit deep, especially if Pardubice take an early lead and slow the tempo. The hosts have shown they can score at home, as evidenced by their 5:3 win over Sparta Prague, and if they find an opening early they could frustrate the visitors. The main risk is that Pardubice's recent results include two heavy defeats, and if they come out flat the model's expectations shift toward a stalemate.